Lane change estimation device, lane change estimation method, and storage medium

Abstract

A lane change estimation device includes a detection unit that detects a surrounding situation of an own-vehicle, a first index value deriving unit that derives a first index value according to a traveling-direction-related relationship between each of a plurality of pairs of vehicles, each pair including two vehicles among the own-vehicle, a first vehicle traveling in front of the own-vehicle in a first lane in which the own-vehicle travels, a second vehicle traveling in front of the own-vehicle in a second lane adjacent to the first lane, and a third vehicle traveling behind the second vehicle in the second lane on the basis of the surrounding situation of the own-vehicle, and an estimation unit that estimates a probability of lane change of the third vehicle on the basis of the first index value derived and a lateral position of the third vehicle.

What is claimed is: 
     
       1. A lane change estimation device comprising:
 a processor; and 
 a memory that stores executable instructions that, when executed by the processor, perform operations, comprising: 
 detecting a surrounding situation of an own-vehicle; 
 determining a first index value, on the basis of the detected surrounding situation of the own-vehicle, based on a traveling-direction-related relationship between a pair of vehicles of a plurality of pairs of vehicles, the pair of vehicles including two vehicles among the own-vehicle, a first vehicle is detected to travel in front of the own-vehicle in a first lane in which the own-vehicle travels, a second vehicle is detected to travel in front of the own-vehicle in a second lane adjacent to the first lane, and a third vehicle is detected to travel behind the second vehicle in the second lane; and 
 determining a probability of a lane change by the third vehicle based on the first index value and a lateral position of the third vehicle, 
 wherein the first index value is determined based on a first time until the own-vehicle approaches the first vehicle within a predetermined distance and a second time until the second vehicle approaches the third vehicle within the predetermined distance, and 
 wherein a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle is determined based on the first time being longer than the second time rather than the first time being shorter than the second time. 
 
     
     
       2. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 , wherein the operations further comprise
 determining a second index value relating to the third vehicle based on the lateral position of the third vehicle and at least one of an amount of lateral movement of the third vehicle in a predetermined period or a velocity of lateral movement of the third vehicle, and 
 determining the probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on the first index value and the second index value. 
 
     
     
       3. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 ,
 wherein the first index value is determined based on one or more of a group of values comprising a time until the the pair of vehicles approach a predetermined distance from the own-vehicle, a distance between the pair of vehicles, a headway time of the pair of vehicles, and a relative velocity of the pair of vehicles. 
 
     
     
       4. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 , wherein the operations further comprise
 determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on a relative velocity of the second vehicle with respect to the first vehicle being greater than zero or equal to zero rather than the relative velocity of the second vehicle with respect to the first vehicle being less than zero. 
 
     
     
       5. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining the first index value based on a travel-direction-related relationship between the pair of vehicles of the plurality of vehicles, wherein the travel-direction-related relationship of the first vehicle and the second vehicle is excluded. 
 
     
     
       6. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on a movement direction of the third vehicle in a lateral direction being toward the first lane rather than the movement direction of the third vehicle in the lateral direction being away from the first lane. 
 
     
     
       7. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on a direction indicator of the third vehicle indicating an intention to enter the first lane rather than the direction indicator not indicating the intention to enter the first lane. 
 
     
     
       8. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on an obstacle being present in front of the third vehicle rather than the obstacle not being present in front of the third vehicle. 
 
     
     
       9. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 1 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change the third vehicle based on a lane in front of the third vehicle being closed rather than the lane in front of the third vehicle being open. 
 
     
     
       10. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein the first index value is determined based on one or more of a group of values comprising a time until the pair of vehicles approach within a predetermined distance, a distance between the pair of vehicles, a headway time of the pair of vehicles, and a relative velocity of the pair of vehicles. 
 
     
     
       11. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change the third vehicle based on a relative velocity of the second vehicle with respect to the first vehicle being greater than zero or equal to zero rather than the relative velocity of the second vehicle with respect to the first vehicle being less than zero. 
 
     
     
       12. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining the first index value based on a travel-direction-related relationship between the pair of vehicles of the plurality of vehicles excluding the travel-direction-related relationship of the first vehicle and the second vehicle. 
 
     
     
       13. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on a movement direction of the third vehicle in a lateral direction being toward the first lane rather than the movement direction of the third vehicle in the lateral direction being away from the first lane. 
 
     
     
       14. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on a direction indicator of the third vehicle indicating an intention to enter the first lane rather than the direction indicator not indicating the intention to enter the first lane. 
 
     
     
       15. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein the operations further comprise determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on an obstacle being present in front of the third vehicle rather than the obstacle not being present in front of the third vehicle. 
 
     
     
       16. The lane change estimation device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein the operations further comprising determining a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle based on a lane in front of the third vehicle being closed rather than the lane in front of the third vehicle being open. 
 
     
     
       17. A lane change estimation method comprising:
 an in-vehicle computer comprising a processor: 
 detecting a surrounding situation of an own-vehicle; 
 determining a first index value, on the basis of the detected surrounding situation of the own-vehicle, based on a traveling-direction-related relationship between a pair of vehicles of a plurality of pairs of vehicles, the pair of vehicles including two vehicles among the own-vehicle, a first vehicle is detected to travel in front of the own-vehicle in a first lane in which the own-vehicle travels, a second vehicle is detected to travel in front of the own-vehicle in a second lane adjacent to the first lane, and a third vehicle is detected to travel behind the second vehicle in the second lane; and 
 determining a probability of a lane change by the third vehicle based on the first index value and a lateral position of the third vehicle, 
 wherein the first index value is determined based on a first time until the own-vehicle approaches the first vehicle within a predetermined distance and a second time until the second vehicle approaches the third vehicle within the predetermined distance, and 
 wherein a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle is determined based on the first time being longer than the second time rather than the first time being shorter than the second time. 
 
     
     
       18. A non-transitory computer readable medium configured to store a vehicle control program causing an in-vehicle computer to perform operations, comprising:
 detecting a surrounding situation of an own-vehicle; 
 determining a first index value, on the basis of the detected surrounding situation of the own-vehicle, based on a traveling-direction-related relationship between a pair of vehicles of a plurality of pairs of vehicles, the pair of vehicles including two vehicles among the own-vehicle, a first vehicle is detected to travel in front of the own-vehicle in a first lane in which the own-vehicle travels, a second vehicle is detected to travel in front of the own-vehicle in a second lane adjacent to the first lane, and a third vehicle is detected to travel behind the second vehicle in the second lane; and 
 determining a probability of a lane change by the third vehicle based on the first index value and a lateral position of the third vehicle, 
 wherein the first index value is determined based on a first time until the own-vehicle approaches the first vehicle within a predetermined distance and a second time until the second vehicle approaches the third vehicle within the predetermined distance, and 
 wherein a higher probability of the lane change by the third vehicle is determined based on the first time being longer than the second time rather than the first time being shorter than the second time.