Determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest

Abstract

A method of determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest is disclosed. The contest may be a sporting contest such as a football game. The method includes accepting a set of one or more current parameter values (such as score or field position) which influence the likelihood of the possible event outcome (such as the likelihood of a running play). The set of current parameter values is used to retrieve situation-specific likelihood data from a data store. Odds associated with the possible outcome are set based at least in part on the likelihood data. The odds may be adjusted using one or more non-situation-specific factors indicating an average likelihood of the event outcome (such as an average likelihood of a running play for a team regardless of situation). The method may expedite odds determination. An associated system and machine readable medium are also disclosed.

1 . A method of determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest, comprising: 
 accepting a set of one or more current parameter values, a likelihood of said possible outcome of said event being dependent upon each parameter;    utilizing said set of current parameter values to retrieve likelihood data from a data store; and    setting odds associated with said possible outcome of said event based at least in part on said likelihood data.    
   
   
       2 . The method of  claim 1  wherein said setting odds further comprises adjusting said likelihood data, X, to obtain adjusted likelihood data Y, utilizing at least one factor indicating a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of different sets of parameter values.  
   
   
       3 . The method of  claim 2  wherein said at least one factor comprises a first factor, A, obtained by determining a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of different sets of parameter values across a group of entities which have performed said event.  
   
   
       4 . The method of  claim 3  wherein said at least one factor further comprises a second factor, B, obtained by determining a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of different sets of parameter values for an entity of said group of entities which is performing said event.  
   
   
       5 . The method of  claim 4  wherein said adjusted likelihood data, Y, is related to said unadjusted likelihood data, X, by the formula Y=((B−A 2 )/(A−A 2 ))×X+(1−((B−A 2 )/(A−A 2 )))×X 2 .  
   
   
       6 . The method of  claim 5  wherein said contest is a sport and each entity of said group of entities is a participant in said sport.  
   
   
       7 . The method of  claim 6  wherein each said participant is an individual participant where said sport is an individual sport and a team where said sport is a team sport.  
   
   
       8 . The method of  claim 1  wherein said method is for determining odds of all possible outcomes of said event and wherein said setting odds is for setting odds associated with each possible outcome of said event based at least in part on said likelihood data.  
   
   
       9 . The method of  claim 8  further comprising, responsive to said setting odds, populating a display with an odds indication for each possible outcome of said event.  
   
   
       10 . The method of  claim 9  further comprising: 
 establishing a given odds indication for a given possible outcome as an automatically adjusted odds indication;    accepting manual adjustment of any said odds indication; and    on a manual adjustment of an odds indication other than said automatically adjusted odds indication, commensurately adjusting said automatically adjusted odds indication to maintain a certain cumulative probability of all possible outcomes of said event.    
   
   
       11 . The method of  claim 10  further comprising juicing each said odds indication.  
   
   
       12 . The method of  claim 11  further comprising, on receiving a user prompt, exporting an indication of said event and each said odds indication.  
   
   
       13 . The method of  claim 11  further comprising: 
 on receiving a first user prompt, providing an indication of said event and each said odds indication;    receiving bets on at least one possible outcome of said event; and    on receiving a second user prompt, ceasing to receive bets on any possible outcome of said event.    
   
   
       14 . The method of  claim 7  wherein said sport is American football and wherein said parameter values are values for field position, down, and yards to go to the next first down.  
   
   
       15 . A computer system for determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest, comprising: 
 a user interface;    a display;    a data store; and    a processor for: 
 receiving a set of one or more current parameter values from said user interface, a likelihood of said possible outcome of said event being dependent upon each parameter;  
 utilizing said set of current parameter values to retrieve likelihood data from said data store;  
 setting odds associated with said possible outcome of said event based at least in part on said likelihood data; and  
 displaying an indication of said odds on said display.  
   
   
   
       16 . A machine-readable medium encoded for determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest, comprising: 
 machine executable code for accepting a set of one or more current parameter values, a likelihood of said possible outcome of said event being dependent upon each parameter;    machine executable code for utilizing said set of current parameter values to retrieve likelihood data from a data store; and    machine executable code for setting odds associated with said possible outcome of said event based at least in part on said likelihood data.    
   
   
       17 . The machine-readable medium of  claim 16  wherein said machine executable code for setting odds further comprises machine executable code for adjusting said likelihood data, X, to obtain adjusted likelihood data Y, utilizing at least one factor indicating a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of different sets of parameter values.  
   
   
       18 . The machine-readable medium of  claim 17  wherein said at least one factor comprises a first factor, A, obtained by determining a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of different sets of parameter values across a group of entities which have performed said event.  
   
   
       19 . The machine-readable medium of  claim 18  wherein said at least one factor further comprises a second factor, B, obtained by determining a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of different sets of parameter values for an entity of said group of entities which is performing said event.  
   
   
       20 . The machine-readable medium of  claim 19  wherein said adjusted likelihood data, Y, is related to said unadjusted likelihood data, X, by the formula Y=((B−A 2 )/(A−A 2 ))×X+(1−((B−A 2 )/(A−A 2 )))×X 2 .