Optimizing active decision making using simulated decision making

Abstract

A method and a computer implemented system for improving an active decision making process by using a simulation model of the decision making process. The simulation model is used to evaluate the impact of alternative decisions at a choice point, in order to select one alternative. The method or system may be integrated with an external system, like a manufacturing execution system. The simulation model may be stochastic, may be updated from monitoring the external system or the simulations, or may contain a Bayesian network

1 . A method for optimizing an active decision making process that requires selecting actions at a sequence of choice points, comprising: 
 a. creating a simulation model for the active decision making process comprising the potential effects of an action;    b. generating a plurality of alternative actions at a choice point in the active decision making process;    c. for one of these alternative actions, generating a simulation of the future decision making process using the simulation model; and    d. analyzing the result of this simulation to select an action for the choice point.    
   
   
       2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the simulation model comprises a stochastic component.  
   
   
       3 . The method of  claim 2 , wherein the stochastic component comprises a policy for choosing among alternative decisions.  
   
   
       4 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein two simulations are interleaved such that one simulation starts before another ends.  
   
   
       5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the simulation model comprises of a Bayesian network.  
   
   
       6 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the simulation model comprises a component selected from the group consisting of hierarchical variables, abstract data types, differential vector of previous states, user-defined functions, Markov decision processes, partially-observable Markov decision processes, heuristics evaluation function, user model for simulating users of the active decision making process, execution model for simulating an external application, and control model for simulating the active decision making process.  
   
   
       7 . The method of  claim 1 , further integrating the active decision making process with an external application.  
   
   
       8 . The method of  claim 7 , wherein the external application comprises a simulation system.  
   
   
       9 . The method of  claim 7 , wherein the simulation model is updated using the data obtained by monitoring the external application.  
   
   
       10 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the simulation model is updated using the result of the simulation.  
   
   
       11 . A computer implemented system for optimizing an active decision making process that requires selecting actions at a sequence of choice points, comprising: 
 a. a simulation model for the active decision making process comprising the potential effects of an action;    b. generation of a plurality of alternative actions at a choice point in the active decision making process;    c. for one of these alternative actions, generation of a simulation of the future decision making process using the simulation model; and    d. analysis of the result of this simulation to select an action for the choice point.    
   
   
       12 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the simulation model comprises a stochastic component.  
   
   
       13 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the stochastic component comprises policy for choosing among alternative decisions.  
   
   
       14 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein two simulations are interleaved such that one simulation starts before another ends.  
   
   
       15 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the simulation model comprises of a Bayesian network.  
   
   
       16 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the simulation model comprises a component selected from the group consisting of hierarchical variables, abstract data types, differential vector of previous states, user-defined functions, Markov decision processes, partially-observable Markov decision processes, heuristics evaluation function, user model for simulating users of the active decision making process, execution model for simulating an external application, and control model for simulating the active decision making process.  
   
   
       17 . The system of  claim 11 , further integrating the active decision making process with an external application.  
   
   
       18 . The system of  claim 17 , wherein the external application comprises a simulation system.  
   
   
       19 . The system of  claim 17 , wherein the simulation model is updated using the data obtained by monitoring the external application.  
   
   
       20 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the simulation model is updated using the result of the simulation.