Robustness and notifications in travel planning system

Abstract

A method includes determining a travel itinerary that includes a first segment that is scheduled to arrive at a location at an arrival time and a second segment that is scheduled to depart from the location at a departure time. The method also includes deriving a probability distribution of delays in the arrival time based on an arrival statistical model of the first segment, retrieving a minimum connection time required by a traveler traveling in the first segment to connect to the second segment, and computing a likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment based on the probability distribution of delays in the arrival time. Annotations are derived from the computed likelihood and added to the travel itinerary.

1 . A method comprising: 
 determining a travel itinerary that includes a first segment that is scheduled to arrive at a first location at a first arrival time and a second segment that is scheduled to depart from the first location at a first departure time;    computing a likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment based on a probability distribution of delays in the first arrival time;    deriving second segment annotations from the computed likelihood; and    displaying, on a display device, the second segment annotations proximate to the second segment of the travel itinerary.    
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 wherein computing the likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment is further based on the probability distribution of delays in the first departure time.    
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 building an arrival statistical model of the first segment based on past delays in arrival times associated with the first segment.    
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 building a departure statistical model of the second segment based on past delays in departure times associated with the second segment.    
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 determining whether the likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment is greater than a threshold value;    if the likelihood is greater than the threshold value, determining an alternate segment that the traveler may connect to if the traveler fails to connect to the second segment; and    adding the alternate segment to the itinerary.    
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 deriving probability distribution of delays in the first arrival time based on an arrival statistical model of the first segment; and    determining probability distribution of delays in the departure time based on a departure statistical model of the second segment.    
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 retrieving a minimum connection time required by a traveler traveling in the first segment to connect to the second segment; and    wherein computing a likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment based on the minimum connection time.    
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 7  wherein computing the likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment includes: 
 calculating the difference between the first departure time and the sum of the first arrival time and the minimum connection time; and    determining the probability that the delay in the first arrival time is greater than the calculated difference.    
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 rendering annotations in a graphical user interface.    
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 1  further comprising: 
 determining whether the likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment is greater than a threshold value; and    if the likelihood is greater than the threshold value, determining an alternate segment that the traveler may connect to if the traveler fails to connect to the second segment;    adding the alternate segment to the itinerary; and    displaying the alternative segment with the itinerary.    
     
     
         11 . An article comprising a machine-read medium which stores machine-executable instructions operable to cause a machine to: 
 determine a travel itinerary that includes a first segment that is scheduled to arrive at a first location at a first arrival time and a second segment that is scheduled to depart from the first location at a first departure time;    compute a likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment based on a probability distribution of delays in the first arrival time;    derive second segment annotations from the computed likelihood; and    render, on a display device, the second segment annotations proximate to the second segment of the travel itinerary.    
     
     
         12 . The article of  claim 11  wherein computing the likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment is further based on the probability distribution of delays in the first departure time.  
     
     
         13 . The article of  claim 11  wherein the instructions further cause the machine to: 
 derive the probability distribution of delays in the first arrival time based on an arrival statistical model of the first segment.    
     
     
         14 . The article of  claim 11  wherein the instructions further cause the machine to: 
 determine the probability distribution of delays in the departure time based on a departure statistical model of the second segment.    
     
     
         15 . The article of  claim 11  wherein the instructions further cause the machine to: 
 build the arrival statistical model of the first segment based on past delays in arrival times associated with the first segment.    
     
     
         16 . The article of  claim 11  wherein the instructions further cause the machine to: 
 build the departure statistical model of the second segment based on past delays in departure times associated with the second segment.    
     
     
         17 . The article of  claim 16  wherein the instructions further cause the machine to: 
 determine whether the likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment is greater than a threshold value;    if the likelihood is greater than the threshold value, determine an alternate segment that the traveler may connect to if the traveler fails to connect to the second segment;    add the alternate segment to the itinerary.    
     
     
         18 . A method comprising: 
 determining a travel itinerary that includes a first segment that is scheduled to arrive at a first location at a first arrival time and a second segment that is scheduled to depart from the first location at a first departure time;    computing a likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the second segment based on a probability distribution of delays in the first arrival time;    determining an alternative segment; and    computing the likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the alternate segment.    
     
     
         19 . The method of  claim 18  further comprising: 
 deriving second segment annotations from the computed likelihood; and    displaying the second segment annotations in proximity to the travel itinerary.    
     
     
         20 . The method of  claim 18  further comprising: 
 derive alternate segment annotations from the computed likelihood that the traveler will fail to connect to the alternate segment; and    displaying the alternate segment annotations in proximity to the travel itinerary.