Win probability based on historic analysis

Abstract

A valuation system determines a win probability, which is a measure of the likelihood a participant in a particular game is to win the game given a current game state. The valuation system may determine the win probability from an analysis of events that have occurred in actual games that have occurred over a predetermined time period in the past. The valuation system may then provide the win probability to various media outlets for display or broadcast, for example, within the context of the game. The valuation system may also display or broadcast the win probability through its own broadcast source, such as its web site.

1 . A computer-readable medium whose contents cause a computing system to determine in real-time a win probability for a participant of an athletic competition during the athletic competition, the contents cause the computing system to: 
 determine a current state in the athletic competition, the current state determined from at least one factor that describes the state of the athletic competition; and    determine the win probability for the participant based on the current state, the win probability determined from an analysis of a sufficient number of states that have occurred during past athletic competitions.    
   
   
       2 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the at least one factor includes a score differential in the athletic competition.  
   
   
       3 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the at least one factor includes an indication of a time in the athletic competition.  
   
   
       4 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the at least one factor includes an indication of type of surface the athletic competition is being contested on.  
   
   
       5 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the at least one factor includes an indication of weather condition during the athletic competition.  
   
   
       6 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is a baseball game.  
   
   
       7 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is a football game.  
   
   
       8 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is a basketball game.  
   
   
       9 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is a golf tournament.  
   
   
       10 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is auto racing.  
   
   
       11 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is soccer.  
   
   
       12 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is volleyball.  
   
   
       13 . The computer-readable medium of  claim 1 , wherein the athletic competition is cycling.  
   
   
       14 . A method in a computing system to determine in real-time a win probability for a participant of an athletic contest during the athletic contest, the method comprising: 
 determining a current state in the athletic contest, the current state determined from factors that describes the state of the athletic contest; and    determining the win probability for the participant based on the current state, the win probability determined from an analysis of a sufficient number of states that have occurred during past athletic contests.    
   
   
       15 . The method of  claim 14 , wherein the factors are specific to the participant.  
   
   
       16 . The method of  claim 14 , wherein the factors are independent of the participant.  
   
   
       17 . A method in a computing system for determining in real-time values of game states occurring during a sports competition, the method comprising: 
 identifying a first game state in the sports competition, the first game state determined from at least one factor that describes the state of the sports competition;    determining a first win probability based on the first game state;    determining a second game state immediately succeeding the first game state;    determining a second win probability based on the first game state; and    determining a value for the second game state from the first win probability and the second win probability,    wherein the first and second win probabilities are determined from an analysis of a sufficient number of states that have occurred during past sports competitions, the states determined from at least one factor that describes the state of the sports competition.    
   
   
       18 . The method of  claim 17 , wherein the at least one factor indicates a current score differential in the sports competition.  
   
   
       19 . The method of  claim 17 , wherein the at least one condition indicates a time remaining in the sports competition.  
   
   
       20 . The method of  claim 17 , wherein the at least one condition indicates a current position of a competitor participating in the sports competition.