Systems and methods for providing a personalized exchange market

Abstract

The present invention relates to systems and methods for providing a personalized exchange market, and more specifically, to systems and methods for establishing personalized pledge agreements for uncertain future events or occurrences. In one embodiment, the invention includes a method including the steps of facilitating a pledge offer via a network, the pledge offer specifying an outcome of an uncertain future occurrence, the uncertain future occurrence being independently definable; facilitating an acceptance of the pledge offer over via the network, the acceptance forming a pledge agreement; determining the outcome; and facilitating performance of the pledge agreement based on the outcome.

1 . A system for providing a personalizable prediction market, the system comprising: 
 a software application, the software application being accessible by a plurality of participants via computer network,    wherein the software application facilitates 
 defining a possible outcome of an uncertain future occurrence, the possible outcome of the uncertain future occurrence being independently definable by any of the plurality of participants, the possible outcome of the uncertain future occurrence being limited to a concise description;  
 establishing a negotiable interest in the possible outcome, the negotiable interest providing a payout amount and a maturity date, the payout amount being payable to an owner of the negotiable interest if the possible outcome occurs by the maturity date; and  
 exchanging the negotiable interest with any of the plurality of participants for a price, the price being market determined based on an amount that any of the plurality of participants are willing to pay,  
   wherein the price reflects an incentivized perceived probability that the possible outcome will occur by the maturity date.    
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the software application further facilitates determining whether the possible outcome occurs by the maturity date using an information feed.  
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 2  wherein the software application further facilitates transferring the payout amount to the owner of the negotiable interest when the possible outcome occurs by the maturity date.  
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the negotiable interest is in a form of a stock.  
     
     
         5 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the price is in a form of a virtual dollar.  
     
     
         6 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the exchanging the negotiable interest is limited to between a definable group of the plurality of participants.  
     
     
         7 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the possible outcome is any of a binary outcome, a list outcome, and a value selection.  
     
     
         8 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the software application further facilitates combining the negotiable interest with at least one additional negotiable interest to form an index fund.  
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 8  wherein the index fund is dividable into negotiable fractional interests.  
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the software application further facilitates establishing a negotiable secondary asset in the negotiable interest, the negotiable secondary asset including any of a future and an option in the negotiable interest.  
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the possible outcome of the uncertain future occurrence is reviewable for quality control purposes.  
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the software application further facilitates providing margin accounts to borrow a negotiable interest for short selling purposes.  
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 1  wherein the software application further facilitates providing message boards for receiving and publishing communications from any of the plurality of participants.  
     
     
         14 . A method for supporting decisions based upon price information from a personalizable prediction market, the method comprising the steps of: 
 defining a possible outcome of an uncertain future occurrence, the possible outcome of the uncertain future occurrence being independently definable;    inputting the possible outcome of the uncertain future occurrence into a user interface of a software application, the user interface of the software application being accessible by a plurality of participants via a computer network, the software application being configurable to establish a negotiable interest for the possible outcome, the negotiable interest including a payout amount and a maturity date, the payout amount being payable to an owner of the negotiable interest if the possible outcome occurs by the maturity date;    providing an exchange of the negotiable interest using the software application with any of the plurality of participants for a price; and    using the price as a probability indicator to support a decision.    
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 14 , further comprising the step of: 
 using additional information including any of price change and trade volume to support a decision.    
     
     
         16 . The method of  claim 15  wherein a fee is imposed for access to any of the price, the price change, and the trade volume.  
     
     
         17 . A system for providing a personalizable prediction market, the system comprising: 
 a software application, the software application being accessible by a plurality of participants via computer network,    wherein the software application facilitates 
 defining an offer, the offer including a possible outcome of an uncertain future occurrence, the possible outcome of the uncertain future occurrence being independently definable by a first participant, the offer including a payout amount and a maturity date, the payout amount being payable if the possible outcome occurs by the maturity date;  
 publishing the offer to the plurality of participants, the published offer being reviewable by a second participant; and  
 forming an agreement between the first participant and the second participant whereby the second participant exchanges value for the right to the payout amount if the possible outcome occurs by the maturity date,  
   wherein the value reflects an incentivized perceived probability that the possible outcome will occur by the maturity date.    
     
     
         18 . The system of  claim 17  wherein the agreement is in a form of a stock agreement.  
     
     
         19 . The system of  claim 17  wherein the value is in a form of a virtual dollar.