Causal ladder mechanism for proactive problem determination, avoidance and recovery

Abstract

A plurality of causal ladder is assembled in advance from component system events taken from previous system failures. The ladders classify the various transitions the system goes through from one set of observed states to another in multiple stages representing issues of differing urgency, importance and need for remediation. These stages are used at runtime to determine the criticality of any abnormal system activity and to accurately predict the component failure prior to the system crashing. Each ladder comprises a plurality of elevated stages representing criticality of the problem. At runtime, the causal ladder engine correlates real-time events received from the system to stages of one or more pre-constructed causal ladders and identifies a probable problem (and/or the faulty component) from the corresponding causal ladder. The causal ladder engine also determines the stage of the problem from event occurrences. At each stage, a different potential solution is identified for the problem.

1 - 13 . (canceled)  
   
   
       14 : A computer program product for proactive problem determination and component failure avoidance, said computer program product comprising: 
 a computer usable medium having computer useable program code embodied therewith, the computer usable program code comprising: 
 computer usable program code to assemble a plurality of causal ladders, each of the plurality of causal ladders representing a plurality of sequential stages of criticality of a component problem that resulted in a system failure, wherein the computer usable program code to assemble the plurality of causal ladders, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to receive a plurality of failure events that resulted in a previous failure of a component;  
 computer usable program code to identify a component problem related to an occurrence of each of the plurality of failure events;  
 computer usable program code to correlate each of the plurality of failure events to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in a causal ladder representing a respective identified component problem; and  
 computer usable program code to assign at least one remedy to each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the respective identified component problem:  
 
 computer usable program code to associate at least one remedy for  
   a component problem for each of the plurality of sequential stages of criticality in each of the respective causal ladders; 
 computer usable program code to identify a potential component failure from one of the plurality of causal ladders representing a component problem relating to the potential component failure, wherein the computer usable program code to identify a potential component failure from one of the plurality of causal ladders representing a component problem relating to the potential component failure, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to receive a runtime system event;  
 computer usable program code to correlate the received runtime system event to the at least one of the plurality of failure events correlated to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the identified component problem; and  
 computer usable program code to determine a criticality of the identified component problem based on the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder; and  
 
 computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem based on the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, wherein the computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem based on the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to access policy associated with the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder;  
 computer usable program code to rank the at least one remedy for the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder representing the identified component problem based on policy associated with the correlated discrete sequential stage and based on a previous performance in remedying the component problem; and  
 computer usable program code to select a highest ranking solution for the identified component problem.  
 
   
   
   
       15 : The computer program product recited in  claim 14 , wherein the computer usable program code to correlate the received runtime system event to the at least one of the plurality of failure events correlated to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the identified component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to determine an estimated time until failure for each of the plurality of sequential discrete stages of criticality in each of the plurality of causal ladders from a previous component problem; and    computer usable program code to associate the respective estimated time until failure with each of the plurality of sequential discrete stages of criticality in each of the plurality of causal ladders.    
   
   
       16 : The computer program product recited in  claim 15 , wherein the computer usable program code to assign at least one remedy to each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the respective identified component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to associate an estimated repair time to each of the at least one remedy for each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder.    
   
   
       17 : The computer program product recited in  claim 16 , wherein the computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem based on the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to identify all remedies having an estimated repair time that is greater than the estimated time until failure and excluding the identified remedies from ranking for each remedy assigned to the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder.    
   
   
       18 : The computer program product recited in  claim 17 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to receive a second runtime system event;    computer usable program code to correlate the received second runtime system event to at least a second of the plurality of failure events assigned to second discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, wherein at least one other runtime system event has correlated to the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem;    computer usable program code to determine a second criticality of the component problem based on the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder; and    computer usable program code to elevate criticality of the component problem based on the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder.    
   
   
       19 : The computer program product recited in  claim 18 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to access policy associated with the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to retrieve an estimated time until failure for the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to retrieve a plurality of remedies associated with the second correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the identified component problem;    computer usable program code to retrieve an estimated repair time associated with each of the plurality of remedies associated with the second correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality;    computer usable program code to identify any remedies of the plurality of remedies with an associated estimated repair time that is greater than the estimated time until failure for the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to exclude the identified any remedies from the plurality of remedies;    computer usable program code to rank the plurality of remedies based on policy associated with the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality; and    computer usable program code to select a highest ranking of the plurality of remedies for the identified component problem.    
   
   
       20 . (canceled)  
   
   
       21 : The computer program product recited in  claim 14 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to construct a hidden Markov model for each causal ladder.    
   
   
       22 : A computer program product for proactive problem determination and component failure avoidance, said computer program product comprising: 
 a computer usable medium having computer useable program code embodied therewith, the computer usable program code comprising: 
 computer usable program code to assemble a plurality of causal ladders, each of the plurality of causal ladders representing a plurality of sequential stages of criticality of a component problem that resulted in a system failure, wherein the computer usable program code to assemble a plurality of causal ladders comprises: 
 computer usable program code to receive a plurality of failure events that resulted in a previous failure of a component;  
 computer usable program code to identify a component problem related to an occurrence of each of the plurality of failure events;  
 computer usable program code to correlate each of the plurality of failure events to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in a causal ladder representing a respective identified component problem; and  
 computer usable program code to assign at least one remedy to each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the respective identified component problem;  
 
 computer usable program code to associate at least one remedy for a component problem for each of the plurality of sequential stages of criticality in each of the respective causal ladders;  
 computer usable program code to identify a potential component failure from one of the plurality of causal ladders representing a component problem relating to the potential component failure, wherein computer usable program code to identify a potential component failure from one of the plurality of causal ladders comprises: 
 computer usable program code to receive a runtime system event;  
 computer usable program code to correlate the received runtime system event to the at least one of the plurality of failure events correlated to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the identified component problem; and  
 computer usable program code to determine a criticality of the identified component problem based on the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder;  
 
 computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem based on the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, wherein computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem comprises:  
 for each remedy assigned to the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder: 
 computer usable program code to identify all remedies having an estimated repair time that is greater than to estimated time until failure; and  
 computer usable program code to exclude the identified remedies from ranking;  
 computer usable program code to access policy associated with the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder;  
 computer usable program code to rank the at least one remedy for the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder representing the identified component problem based on policy associated with the correlated discrete sequential stage; and  
 computer usable program code to select a highest ranking solution for the identified component problem.  
 
   
   
   
       23 : The computer program product recited in  claim 22 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to rank the at least one remedy for the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder representing the identified component problem based on a previous performance in remedying the component problem.    
   
   
       24 : The computer program product recited in  claim 22 , wherein the computer usable program code to correlate the received runtime system event to the at least one of the plurality of failure events correlated to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the identified component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to determine an estimated time until failure for each of the plurality of sequential discrete stages of criticality in each of the plurality of causal ladders from a previous component problem; and    computer usable program code to associate the respective estimated time until failure with each of the plurality of sequential discrete stages of criticality in each of the plurality of causal ladders.    
   
   
       25 : The computer program product recited in  claim 22 , wherein computer usable program code to assign at least one remedy to each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the respective identified component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to associate an estimated repair time to each of the at least one remedy for each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder.    
   
   
       26 : The computer program product recited in  claim 22 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to receive a second runtime system event;    computer usable program code to correlate the received second runtime system event to at least a second of the plurality of failure events assigned to second discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, wherein at least one other runtime system event has correlated to the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem;    computer usable program code to determine a second criticality of the component problem based on the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder; and    computer usable program code to elevate criticality of the component problem based on the correlated another discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder.    
   
   
       27 : The computer program product recited in  claim 22 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to access policy associated with the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to retrieve an estimated time until failure for the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to retrieve a plurality of remedies associated with the second correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the identified component problem;    computer usable program code to retrieve an estimated repair time associated with each of the plurality of remedies associated with the second correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality;    computer usable program code to identify any remedies of the plurality of remedies with an associated estimated repair time that is greater than the estimated time until failure for the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to exclude the identified any remedies from the plurality of remedies;    computer usable program code to rank the plurality of remedies based on policy associated with the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality; and    computer usable program code to select a highest ranking of the plurality of remedies for the identified component problem.    
   
   
       28 : A computer program product for proactive problem determination and component failure avoidance, said computer program product comprising: 
 a computer usable medium having computer useable program code embodied therewith, the computer usable program code comprising: 
 computer usable program code to assemble a plurality of causal ladders, each of the plurality of causal ladders representing a plurality of sequential stages of criticality of a component problem that resulted in a system failure, wherein computer usable program code to assemble a plurality of causal ladders comprises: 
 computer usable program code to receive a plurality of failure events that resulted in a previous failure of a component;  
 computer usable program code to identify a component problem related to an occurrence of each of the plurality of failure events;  
 computer usable program code to correlate each of the plurality of failure events to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in a causal ladder representing a respective identified component problem; and  
 computer usable program code to assign at least one remedy to each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the respective identified component problem;  
 
 computer usable program code to associate at least one remedy for a component problem for each of the plurality of sequential stages of criticality in each of the respective causal;  
 computer usable program code to identify a potential component failure from one of the plurality of causal ladders representing a component problem relating to the potential component failure, wherein computer usable program code to identify a potential component failure from one of the plurality of causal ladders comprises: 
 computer usable program code to receive a runtime system event;  
 computer usable program code to correlate the received runtime system event to the at least one of the plurality of failure events correlated to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the identified component problem, wherein computer usable program code to correlate the received runtime system event to the at least one of the plurality of failure events correlated to a discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the identified component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to determine an estimated time until failure for each of the plurality of sequential discrete stages of criticality in each of the plurality of causal ladders from a previous component problem; and  
 computer usable program code to associate the respective estimated time until failure with each of the plurality of sequential discrete stages of criticality in each of the plurality of causal ladders; and  
 
 
 computer usable program code to determine a criticality of the identified component problem based on the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder; and  
 computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem based on the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, wherein computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem comprises: 
 computer usable program code to access policy associated with the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder;  
 computer usable program code to rank the at least one remedy for the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder representing the identified component problem based on policy associated with the correlated discrete sequential stage; and  
 computer usable program code to select a highest ranking solution for the identified component problem.  
 
   
   
   
       29 : The computer program product recited in  claim 28 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to rank the at least one remedy for the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality in the causal ladder representing the identified component problem based on a previous performance in remedying the component problem.    
   
   
       30 : The computer program product recited in  claim 28 , wherein the computer usable program code to assign at least one remedy to each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the respective identified component problem, further comprises: 
 computer usable program code to associate an estimated repair time to each of the at least one remedy for each discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder.    
   
   
       31 : The computer program product recited in  claim 28 , wherein computer usable program code to determine a problem solution for the component problem based on the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, further comprises: 
 for each remedy assigned to the correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder: 
 computer usable program code to identify all remedies having an estimated repair time that is greater than to estimated time until failure; and  
 computer usable program code to exclude the identified remedies from ranking.  
   
   
   
       32 : The computer program product recited in  claim 28 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to receive a second runtime system event;    computer usable program code to correlate the received second runtime system event to at least a second of the plurality of failure events assigned to second discrete sequential stage of criticality in one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem, wherein at least one other runtime system event has correlated to the one of the plurality of causal ladders representing the component problem;    computer usable program code to determine a second criticality of the component problem based on the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder; and    computer usable program code to elevate criticality of the component problem based on the correlated another discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder.    
   
   
       33 : The computer program product recited in  claim 28 , further comprising: 
 computer usable program code to access policy associated with the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to retrieve an estimated time until failure for the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to retrieve a plurality of remedies associated with the second correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality of the causal ladder representing the identified component problem;    computer usable program code to retrieve an estimated repair time associated with each of the plurality of remedies associated with the second correlated discrete sequential stage of criticality;    computer usable program code to identify any remedies of the plurality of remedies with an associated estimated repair time that is greater than the estimated time until failure for the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality from the correlated causal ladder;    computer usable program code to exclude the identified any remedies from the plurality of remedies;    computer usable program code to rank the plurality of remedies based on policy associated with the correlated second discrete sequential stage of criticality; and    computer usable program code to select a highest ranking of the plurality of remedies for the identified component problem.