Method and system for estimating supply impact on a firm under a global crisis

Abstract

The availability of relevant business resources, or supply, during a global crisis or disruption are estimated by using a forecast of a baseline supply of human resources and various forms of infrastructure and raw materials for a firm as input. That forecast is corrected to account for the impact of a crisis or other disruption, and a corrected forecast as output is provided. The corrected forecast reflects changes in the availability of business resources due to the crisis or disruption, dependencies between resources, as well as any mitigating effects resulting from the implementation of mitigation policies.

1 . A method of estimating the availability of one or more business resources in the event of a crisis or other disruption, comprising the steps of:
 using a computer to receive as input
 a forecast of business resource availability under baseline conditions, and 
 a set of parameter values representing one or more of business policies, human factors, severity of said crisis or disruption, and dependencies between resources; 
   using a computer to determine a corrected forecast of business resource availability to account for an impact of a disruption by taking into account
 change in the availability of one or more resources accounted for in conventional business planning processes due to said disruption, and 
 change in the availability of one or more resources not accounted for in conventional business planning processes due to said disruption; and 
   using a computer to provide said corrected forecast of business resource availability as output.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1  wherein the disruption is an epidemiological crisis. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1  wherein resources accounted for in said conventional business planning processes include one or more of
 raw materials,   machinery, and   human resources.   
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 3  wherein said conventional business planning processes lack accounting for one or more resources selected from the group consisting of
 network connectivity,   clean water,   electricity,   roads,   maritime port and shipping capacity,   air travel capacity,   air freight capacity,   global logistics hubs,   site access, and   availability of human resources of one or more of the firm's suppliers.   
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the step of correcting the forecast of resource availability to account for the potential impact of a disruption takes into account a dependency between resources accounted for in a conventional business planning process and resources not accounted for in a conventional business planning process. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1  wherein the step of correcting the forecast of resource availability to account for the potential impact of a disruption takes into account one or more potential changes in available resources due to an effect of one or more mitigation policies. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1  wherein input is provided for one or more geographic locations and time periods, taking into account each dependency between a location and a time period. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 1  wherein output is provided for one or more geographical locations and time periods, taking into account each dependency between a location and a time period. 
     
     
         9 . A system for estimating the availability of one or more business resources in the event of a crisis or other disruption, comprising:
 a computer receiving as input
 forecast data of business resource availability under baseline conditions, and 
 a data set of parameter values representing one or more of business policies, human factors, severity of said crisis or disruption, and dependencies between resources; 
   a computer determining a corrected forecast of business resource availability to account for an impact of a disruption by taking into account
 change in the availability of one or more resources accounted for in conventional business planning processes due to said disruption, and 
 change in the availability of one or more resources not accounted for in conventional business planning processes due to said disruption; and 
   a computer providing said corrected forecast of business resource availability as output.   
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 9  wherein the disruption is an epidemiological crisis. 
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 9  wherein the resources accounted for in said conventional business planning processes include one or more of
 raw materials,   machinery, and   human resources.   
     
     
         12 . The method of  claim 9  wherein said conventional business planning processes lack accounting for one or more resources selected from the group consisting of
 network connectivity,   clean water,   electricity,   roads,   maritime port and shipping capacity,   air travel capacity,   air freight capacity,   global logistics hubs,   site access, and   availability of human resources of one or more of the firm's suppliers.   
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein determining the corrected forecast of resource availability to account for the potential impact of a disruption takes into account a dependency between resources accounted for in a conventional business planning process and resources not accounted for in a conventional business planning process. 
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 9  wherein determining the corrected forecast of resource availability to account for the potential impact of a disruption takes into account one or more potential changes in available resources due to a effect of one or more mitigation policies. 
     
     
         15 . The system of  claim 9  wherein input is provided for one or more geographic locations and time periods, taking into account each dependency between a location and a time period. 
     
     
         16 . The system of  claim 9  wherein output is provided for one or more geographical locations and time periods, taking into account each dependency between a location and a time period. 
     
     
         17 . A machine-readable medium for estimating the availability of one or more business resources in the event of a crisis or other disruption, on which is provided:
 machine-readable instructions for a computer to receive as input
 a forecast of business resource availability under baseline conditions, and 
 a set of parameter values representing one or more of business policies, human factors, severity of said crisis or disruption, and dependencies between resources; 
   machine-readable instructions for a computer to determine a corrected forecast of business resource availability to account for an impact of a disruption by taking into account
 change in the availability of one or more resources accounted for in conventional business planning processes due to said disruption, and 
 change in the availability of one or more resources not accounted for in conventional business planning processes due to said disruption; and 
   machine-readable instructions for a computer to provide said corrected forecast of business resource availability as output.