Internet based prediction market

Abstract

An Internet based prediction market wherein articles of property are wagered in peer-to-peer contests wherein title to the goods passes to the participant that best predicts the outcome of a future event. Information relating to property posted on the exchange website by members is presented for browsing by other members. The property is assigned an approximate value for wagering purposes, which value may be simply assigned by the posting member or based on independent appraisal sources. Members are allowed to enter into peer-to-peer contests wherein a first posted property owned by a first member is wagered against a second posted property owned by a second member in a structured betting exchange wherein title to the first and second properties is determined by predicting the outcome of a future event, such as the close of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange at the end of a given day, the price of gold at the close of trading of an agreed upon day, or any other event, such as the winner of sporting event. The member that correctly predicts, or most closely predicts, the outcome of the agreed upon event is declared the winner and title to the article wagered by the losing member transfers to the winning member. The market maker may realize revenue in the form of a posting fee paid by members upon listing of goods, and in the form of a percentage of the value of the goods transferred.

1 . A method of operating a prediction market wherein articles of property are wagered in peer-to-peer contests over a computer network, said method comprising:
 obtaining member registration information from a plurality of members via the computer network;   receiving and posting information from members regarding goods available for wager via the computer network;   making said posted information accessible to members over the global computer network;   communicating a wager proposal made by a first member to a second member, said wager proposal identifying at least one good posted by each of said first and second members as the goods at stake, said wager proposal further including a event for outcome determination prediction;   confirming the acceptance of a wager proposal;   receiving event outcome predictions for said event from each of said first and second members;   determining the outcome of said event;   determining which of said first and second members most accurately predicted said event outcome and identifying said member as the winner and the other member as the loser;   instructing the losing member to transfer the goods wagered by the losing member to the winning member.   
     
     
         2 . A method of operating a prediction market according to  claim 1 , wherein said event for outcome determination prediction involves a stock market prediction. 
     
     
         3 . A method of operating a prediction market according to  claim 1 , wherein said event for outcome determination prediction involves a commodity market prediction. 
     
     
         4 . A method of operating a prediction market according to  claim 1 , wherein said event for outcome determination prediction involves a currency market prediction. 
     
     
         5 . A method of operating a prediction market according to  claim 1 , wherein said event for outcome determination prediction involves a weather prediction. 
     
     
         6 . A method of operating a prediction market according to  claim 1 , wherein said event for outcome determination prediction involves a sports outcome prediction. 
     
     
         7 . A method of operating a prediction market according to  claim 1 , further including the step of charging members a posting fee upon posting information relating to goods. 
     
     
         8 . A method of operating a prediction market according to  claim 1 , further including the step of charging said winning member a percentage of the value of the goods wagered by the losing member.