Methods and apparatus to forecast new product launch sourcing

Abstract

Methods and apparatus are disclosed to forecast new product launch sourcing. An example method includes identifying shared attributes between the new product and a plurality of existing products in the target market, calculating theoretical co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products, calculating actual co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products, calculating an attribute distance value between corresponding ones of the theoretical and actual co-penetration values, and calculating a percent volume of the new product expected to be sourced from one of the plurality of existing products based on the attribute distance value.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method to determine an effect of introducing a new product in a target market, comprising:
 identifying, with a processor, shared attributes between the new product and a plurality of existing products in the target market;   calculating, with the processor, theoretical co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products;   calculating actual co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products;   calculating an attribute distance value between corresponding ones of the theoretical and actual co-penetration values; and   calculating a percent volume of the new product expected to be sourced from one of the plurality of existing products based on the attribute distance value.   
     
     
         2 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , further comprising calculating a substitutability index between the new product and the one of the plurality of existing products based on the attribute distance value. 
     
     
         3 . A method as defined in  claim 2 , wherein the substitutability index is based on a degree of polarization associated with at least one of the shared attributes. 
     
     
         4 . A method as defined in  claim 3 , wherein the substitutability index weights the degree of polarization by the attribute distance value. 
     
     
         5 . A method as defined in  claim 3 , wherein the degree of polarization comprises an inverse Dirichlet parameter associated with the theoretical co-penetration values. 
     
     
         6 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , wherein calculating the theoretical co-penetration values comprises estimating a Dirichlet model associated with attributes of the plurality of existing products in the target market. 
     
     
         7 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , wherein the shared attributes are associated with a product category. 
     
     
         8 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , wherein the shared attributes comprise at least one of a brand, a product type, a size, a feature or a flavor. 
     
     
         9 . A method as defined in  claim 1 , further comprising calculating a substitutability index between the new product with the one of the plurality of existing products based on distance values for all attributes. 
     
     
         10 . An apparatus to determine an effect of introducing a new product in a target market, comprising:
 a product category comparator to identify shared attributes between the new product and a plurality of existing products in the target market;   a Dirichlet modeling engine to calculate theoretical co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products;   an empirical co-penetration engine to calculate actual co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products;   a distance calculator to calculate an attribute distance value between corresponding ones of the theoretical and actual co-penetration values; and   a volume sourcing calculator to calculate a percent volume of the new product expected to be sourced from one of the plurality of existing products based on the attribute distance value.   
     
     
         11 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 10 , further comprising a substitutability engine to calculate a substitutability index between the new product and the one of the plurality of existing products based on the attribute distance value. 
     
     
         12 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 11 , wherein the substitutability engine is to base the substitutability index on a degree of polarization associated with at least one of the shared attributes. 
     
     
         13 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 12 , wherein the substitutability engine is to weight the degree of polarization by the attribute distance value. 
     
     
         14 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 12 , wherein the degree of polarization comprises an inverse Dirichlet parameter associated with the theoretical co-penetration values. 
     
     
         15 . An apparatus as defined in  claim 10 , wherein the Dirichlet modeling engine is to estimate a Dirichlet model associated with attributes of the plurality of existing products in the target market. 
     
     
         16 . A tangible machine readable storage medium comprising instructions that, when executed, cause a machine to, at least:
 identify shared attributes between the new product and a plurality of existing products in the target market;   calculate theoretical co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products;   calculate actual co-penetration values between the attributes shared between the new product and at least one of the plurality of existing products;   calculate an attribute distance value between corresponding ones of the theoretical and actual co-penetration values; and   calculate a percent volume of the new product expected to be sourced from one of the plurality of existing products based on the attribute distance value.   
     
     
         17 . A machine readable storage medium as defined in  claim 16 , wherein the instructions, when executed, cause the machine to calculate a substitutability index between the new product and the one of the plurality of existing products based on the attribute distance value. 
     
     
         18 . A machine readable storage medium as defined in  claim 17 , wherein the instructions, when executed, cause the machine to base the substitutability index on a degree of polarization associated with at least one of the shared attributes. 
     
     
         19 . A machine readable storage medium as defined in  claim 18 , wherein the instructions, when executed, cause the machine to weight the degree of polarization by the attribute distance value. 
     
     
         20 . A machine readable storage medium as defined in  claim 18 , wherein the instructions, when executed, cause the machine to associated an inverse Dirichlet parameter with the theoretical co-penetration values. 
     
     
         21 . A machine readable storage medium as defined in  claim 16 , wherein the instructions, when executed, cause the machine to estimate a Dirichlet model associated with attributes of the plurality of existing products in the target market. 
     
     
         22 . A machine readable storage medium as defined in  claim 16 , wherein the instructions, when executed, cause the machine to associate the shared attributes with a product category. 
     
     
         23 . A machine readable storage medium as defined in  claim 16 , wherein the instructions, when executed, cause the machine to calculate a substitutability index between the new product with the one of the plurality of existing products based on distance values for all attributes.