Methods and systems for estimating recoverable utility revenue

Abstract

A system includes a utility analytics system. The utility analytics system includes a utility loss system configured to derive a probability of at least one utility technical loss, at least one utility non-technical loss, an unbilled utility system configured to calculate an expected unbilled utility service for a customer based on customer attributes and the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss, the technical loss, and a revenue recoverability system configured to calculate an expected recoverable revenue based on probability of revenue recovery and of the expected unbilled utility service.

1 . A system, comprising:
 a utility analytics system comprising:   a processor configured to execute:   a utility loss system configured to derive a probability of at least one utility non-technical loss, and to derive at least one utility technical loss;   an unbilled utility system configured to calculate an expected unbilled utility service for a customer based on customer attributes, the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss, and the at least one utility technical loss; and   a revenue recoverability system configured to calculate an expected recoverable revenue based on a probability of revenue recovery, the expected unbilled utility service, and the at least one utility technical loss.   
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the at least one utility non-technical loss comprises at least one non-technical energy loss, at least one non-technical water loss, at least one non-technical gas loss, or a combination thereof, and wherein the at least one technical loss comprises an ohmic loss, a discharge loss, or a combination thereof 
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the at least one utility non-technical loss comprises a theft loss, a meter malfunction loss, a meter installation error loss, an administrative error, or a combination thereof. 
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 1 , comprising a business rules system having at least one business rule, wherein the business rules system is configured to derive a priority of cases of non-technical utility loss based at least in part on the at least one business rule. 
     
     
         5 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the utility loss system is configured to use at least one utility business rule to derive the probability of at least one utility non-technical loss, and wherein the at least one utility business rule comprises a detection of a utility meter having unauthorized utility usage; a detection of the utility meter having a bypassed data reading; a detection of the utility meter having produced no data reading for a period of time, a detection of the utility meter having a plurality of activations, a plurality of deactivations, or a combination thereof; a detection of the utility meter having an unusual consumption pattern; a detection of the utility meter having a tamper event; or a combination thereof. 
     
     
         6 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the unbilled utility system is configured to calculate the expected unbilled utility service by:
 generating a customer load profile for the customer based at least in part on a plurality of load profiles derived from data received from a plurality of meters within the utility grid;   computing an integral of a difference between the customer load profile and an observed customer utility usage data received after a period of time from the plurality of meters; and   multiplying the integral with the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss.   
     
     
         7 . The system of  claim 6 , wherein the plurality of meters does not include a meter servicing the customer. 
     
     
         8 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the revenue recoverability system is configured to calculate the expected recoverable revenue by computing one or more products of a recoverability of the utility non-technical loss, the expected unbilled utility service, and a utility billing rate. 
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 8 , wherein the recoverability of the utility non-technical loss comprises a recoverability of one of a plurality of utility non-technical losses. 
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the utility analytics system comprises an Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), an Outage Management System (OMS), a Distribution Management System (DMS), a Geographic Information System (GIS), a Customer Information System (CIS), a Meter Data Management System (MDM), a Meter Data Repository (MDR), or a combination thereof. 
     
     
         11 . A non-transitory computer-readable medium having computer executable code stored thereon, the code comprising instructions for:
 deriving a probability of at least one utility non-technical loss for a utility grid, and at least one technical loss for the utility grid;   deriving an expected unbilled utility service for a customer based on customer attributes, the at least one technical loss, and the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss; and   calculating an expected recoverable revenue based on a probability of revenue recovery, the at least one technical loss, and of the expected unbilled utility service.   
     
     
         12 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of  claim 11 , wherein the code comprises instructions for deriving a priority of cases of non-technical utility loss based at least in part on at least one business rule. 
     
     
         13 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of  claim 11 , wherein the code comprises instructions for:
 generating a customer load profile for the customer based at least in part on a plurality of load profiles derived from data received from a plurality of meters within the utility grid;   computing an integral of a difference between the customer load profile and an observed customer utility usage data received after a period of time from the plurality of meters; and   multiplying the integral with the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss.   
     
     
         14 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of  claim 13 , wherein the code comprises instructions for calculating an expected unbilled utility, wherein the expected unbilled utility comprises a product of the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss and the actual unbilled utility. 
     
     
         15 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of  claim 11 , wherein the code comprises instructions for calculating a lost revenue yield, wherein the lost revenue yield is a based on the at least one utility non-technical loss. 
     
     
         16 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of  claim 11 , wherein the code comprises instructions for calculating an expected recoverable revenue, wherein the expected recoverable revenue is based at least in part on the probability of revenue recovery, the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss, and the unbilled utility. 
     
     
         17 . A method, comprising:
 receiving utility service data from a plurality of meters within a utility delivery system;   deriving a probability of at least one utility non-technical loss for the utility delivery system and at least one utility technical loss;   deriving an expected unbilled utility service for a customer based on customer attributes, the at least one utility technical loss, and the probability of the at least one utility non-technical loss; and   calculating an expected recoverable revenue based on probability of revenue recovery, the at least one utility technical loss, and of the expected unbilled utility service.   
     
     
         18 . The method of  claim 17 , wherein receiving utility service data comprises receiving a notification from an Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), an Outage Management System (OMS), a Distribution Management System (DMS), a Geographic Information System (GIS), a Customer Information System (CIS), a Meter Data Management System (MDM), a Meter Data Repository (MDR), or a combination thereof. 
     
     
         19 . The method of  claim 17 , comprising ranking recoverability of the at least one utility non-technical loss according to economic value, wherein the utility non-technical loss comprises a theft loss, a meter malfunction loss, a meter installation error loss, an administrative error, or a combination thereof. 
     
     
         20 . The method of  claim 17 , wherein calculating the expected recoverable revenue comprises calculating one or more products of a recoverability of the utility non-technical loss, the expected unbilled utility service, and a utility billing rate.