Delivering and pricing sponsored content items

Abstract

This specification describes methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer-readable storage device, for providing a content item. The subject matter of the specification is embodied in a method that includes receiving a bid price associated with displaying a sponsored content item, and using the one or more processing devices to estimate a parameter representing a likelihood of conversion resulting from displaying the sponsored content item on a particular content page. The method also includes outputting data to display the sponsored content item on the particular content page upon determining that the estimated parameter satisfies a threshold condition, and determining a charge for displaying the content item based on the bid price and the estimated parameter.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method performed by one or more processing devices, the method comprising:
 receiving a bid price associated with displaying a sponsored content item;   using the one or more processing devices to estimate a parameter representing a likelihood of conversion resulting from displaying the sponsored content item on a particular content page;   outputting data to display the sponsored content item on the particular content page upon determining that the estimated parameter satisfies a threshold condition; and   determining a charge for displaying the content item based on the bid price and the estimated parameter.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the conversion is one of: a purchase, a phone call, a newsletter sign-up, a page visit, an interaction, and a download, associated with the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein estimating the parameter comprises:
 determining an increment in the likelihood of the conversion due to displaying the sponsored content item on the particular content page, as compared to the sponsored content item being absent from the particular content page.   
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the likelihood is determined based on historical conversion data for the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the likelihood is determined based on conversion data for content items substantially similar to the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the likelihood is determined using a machine-learning process. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the particular content page includes organic search results, and estimating the parameter comprises:
 determining whether the organic search results include an item associated with the sponsored content item.   
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 7 , wherein estimating the parameter comprises:
 determining, within the organic search results, a position of the item associated with the sponsored content item.   
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 3 , wherein the threshold condition specifies the increment in the likelihood to be at least 25%. 
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the charge is a fraction of the bid price, the fraction being related to the estimated parameter, and less than or equal to unity. 
     
     
         11 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the parameter representing the likelihood of conversion is computed also based on an estimated brand impact factor associated with the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         12 . A system comprising:
 a learning engine comprising at least one processor, the learning engine configured to:
 receive a bid price associated with displaying a sponsored content item, 
 estimate a parameter representing a likelihood of conversion resulting from displaying the sponsored content item on a particular content page, and 
 providing a control signal to display the sponsored content item on the particular content page upon determining that the estimated parameter satisfies a threshold condition; and 
   a pricing engine configured to determine a charge for displaying the content item based on the bid price and the estimated parameter.   
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the conversion is one of: a purchase, a phone call, a newsletter sign-up, a page visit, an interaction, and a download, associated with the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the learning engine is configured to estimate the parameter by:
 determining an increment in the likelihood of the conversion due to displaying the sponsored content item on the particular content page, as compared to the sponsored content item being absent from the particular content page.   
     
     
         15 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the likelihood is determined based on historical conversion data for the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         16 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the likelihood is determined based on conversion data for content items substantially similar to the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         17 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the likelihood is determined using a machine-learning process. 
     
     
         18 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the particular content page includes organic search results, and the learning engine estimates the parameter by:
 determining whether the organic search results include an item associated with the sponsored content item.   
     
     
         19 . The system of  claim 18 , wherein the learning engine estimates the parameter by:
 determining, within the organic search results, a position of the item associated with the sponsored content item.   
     
     
         20 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the pricing engine determines the charge as a fraction of the bid price, the fraction being related to the estimated parameter, and less than or equal to unity. 
     
     
         21 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein the learning engine is configured to estimate the parameter representing the likelihood of conversion also based on an estimated brand impact factor associated with the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         22 . A computer readable storage device having encoded thereon computer readable instructions, which upon execution by a processor, cause a processor to perform operations comprising:
 receiving a bid price associated with displaying a sponsored content item;   estimating a parameter representing a likelihood of conversion resulting from displaying the sponsored content item on a particular content page;   outputting data to display the sponsored content item on the particular content page upon determining that the estimated parameter satisfies a threshold condition; and   determining a charge for displaying the content item based on the bid price and the estimated parameter.   
     
     
         23 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 22 , wherein the conversion is one of:
 a purchase, a phone call, a newsletter sign-up, a page visit, an interaction, and a download, associated with the sponsored content item.   
     
     
         24 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 22 , further comprising instructions for estimating the parameter by
 determining an increment in the likelihood of the conversion due to displaying the sponsored content item on the particular content page, as compared to the sponsored content item being absent from the particular content page.   
     
     
         25 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 22 , wherein the likelihood is determined based on historical conversion data for the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         26 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 22 , wherein the likelihood is determined based on conversion data for content items substantially similar to the sponsored content item. 
     
     
         27 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 22 , wherein the particular content page includes organic search results, and estimating the parameter comprises:
 determining whether the organic search results include an item associated with the sponsored content item.   
     
     
         28 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 27 , further comprising instructions for estimating the parameter by:
 determining, within the organic search results, a position of the item associated with the sponsored content item.   
     
     
         29 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 22 , wherein the charge is a fraction of the bid price, the fraction being related to the estimated parameter, and less than or equal to unity. 
     
     
         30 . The computer readable storage device of  claim 22 , further comprising instructions for estimating the parameter representing the likelihood of conversion also based on an estimated brand impact factor associated with the sponsored content item.