Estimating time travel distributions on signalized arterials

Abstract

A system is provided for estimating time travel distributions on signalized arterials. The system may be implemented as a network service. Traffic data regarding a plurality of travel times on a signalized arterial may be received. A present distribution of the travel times on the signalized arterial may be determined. A prior distribution based on one or more travel time observations may also be determined. The present distribution may be calibrated based on the prior distribution.

1 . A method for estimating time travel distributions on signalized arterials, the method comprising:
 receiving travel data about a signalized arterial collected by one or more reidentification devices, the travel data corresponding to data collected within a common time segment in each of a plurality of different days;   receiving real-time travel data about the signalized arterial collected by one or more reidentification devices; and   executing instructions stored in memory, wherein execution of the instructions by a processor:
 normalizes the travel data into a plurality of individual pace values, the pace values expressed as a ratio of time per distance, 
 calculates an average pace value for the signalized arterial as a linear combination of the individual pace values weighted by distance traveled across the signalized arterial, 
 estimates a distribution based on the average pace value, travel data, and store the estimated distribution in memory, calibrates the distribution based on the real-time travel data, and 
 generates a real-time prediction of the traffic conditions of the signalized 
 arterial based on the calibrated distribution. 
   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the normalized travel data is expressed in seconds per mile. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the normalized travel data uses a base unit of time of 15 minutes. 
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the normalized travel data uses a base unit of space corresponding to standard Traffic Message Channel (TMC) location codes. 
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the estimated distributions include variations in pace throughout different time periods in a day. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 5 , wherein the estimated distributions are calibrated using patterns of increase and decrease in travel times. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the received travel data for a particular signalized arterial also includes observations from neighboring streets. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the received travel data for a particular signalized arterial also includes contextual evidence. 
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 8 , wherein the contextual evidence includes local weather, incidents, and special events. 
     
     
         10 . A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, having embodied thereon a program executable by a processor to perform a method for estimating time travel distributions on signalized arterials, the method comprising:
 receiving travel data about a signalized arterial collected by one or more reidentification devices, the travel data corresponding to data collected within a common time segment in each of a plurality of different days;   receiving real-time travel data about the signalized arterial collected by one or more reidentification devices;   normalizing the travel data into a plurality of individual pace values, the pace values expressed as a ratio of time per distance;   calculating an average pace value for the signalized arterial as a linear combination of the individual pace values weighted by distance traveled across the signalized arterial;   estimating a distribution based on the average pace value, travel data, and store the estimated distribution in memory;   calibrating the distribution based on the real-time travel data; and   generating a real-time prediction of the traffic conditions of the signalized arterial based on the calibrated distribution.   
     
     
         11 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 10 , wherein the normalized travel data is expressed in seconds per mile. 
     
     
         12 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 10 , wherein the normalized travel data uses a base unit of time of 15 minutes. 
     
     
         13 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 10 , wherein the normalized travel data uses a base unit of space corresponding to standard Traffic Message Channel (TMC) location codes. 
     
     
         14 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 10 , wherein the estimated distributions include variations in pace throughout different time periods in a day. 
     
     
         15 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 14 , wherein the estimated distributions are calibrated using patterns of increase and decrease in travel times. 
     
     
         16 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 10 , wherein the received travel data for a particular signalized arterial also includes observations from neighboring streets. 
     
     
         17 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 10 , wherein the received travel data for a particular signalized arterial also includes contextual evidence. 
     
     
         18 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of  claim 17 , wherein the contextual evidence includes local weather, incidents, and special events.