Predictive analytics solution support method and system

Abstract

A method for using predictive analytics to support decision-making on an issue, including steps of: identifying a plurality of players involved in the issue; determining, for each of the plurality of players, a priority of the issue for each player, a power of each player to influence the issue, and a position of each player with regard to the issue; simulating a plurality of rounds of negotiation between each of the plurality of players, wherein each round includes steps of calculating a median voter position, calculating an expected utility for each of the plurality of players, each of the plurality of players receiving a plurality of offers from at least one other player, each of the plurality of players accepting one of the plurality of offers, and updating power and position for each of the plurality of players; and identifying a consensus position and ending the simulation if none of the plurality of players receives an offer.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method for using predictive analytics to support decision-making on an issue, the method comprising:
 identifying a plurality of players involved in the issue;   determining, for each of the plurality of players,
 a priority of the issue for each player, 
 a power of each player to influence the issue, and 
 a position of each player with regard to the issue; 
   simulating a plurality of rounds of negotiation between each of the plurality of players, wherein each round includes steps of
 calculating a median voter position, 
 calculating an expected utility for each of the plurality of players, 
 each of the plurality of players receiving a plurality of offers from at least one other player, 
 each of the plurality of players accepting one of the plurality of offers, and 
 updating power and position for each of the plurality of players; and 
   identifying a consensus position and ending the simulation if none of the plurality of players receives an offer.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein identifying a plurality of players comprises steps of
 accessing a database comprising information relating to a plurality of events,   filtering the database to identify a first subset of events relating to the issue,   filtering the first subset of events to identify a second subset of events relating to a first side of the issue and a second side of the issue,   identifying a plurality of actors involved in the second subset of events,   determining a number of times each of the plurality of actors is mentioned in the second subset of events and identifying a first group of actors having a greatest number of mentions,   filtering the second subset of events to identify a third subset of events relating to the group of actors having the most mentions,   eliminating irrelevant events from the third subset of events to identify a fourth subset of events, and   determining a number of times each of the first group of actors is mentioned in the fourth subset of events, wherein the plurality of players comprises each of the first group of actors with a greatest number of mentions in the fourth subset of events.   
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein determining a priority of the issue for each player comprises determining a ratio of the number of times a player has been an initiator of an event related to the issue divided by the maximum number of times any player has been an initiator of an event related to the issue. 
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the issue comprises an international conflict, and wherein each of the plurality of players is a country. 
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 4 , wherein determining a power of each player to influence the issue comprises combining a power index value with a support index value, wherein the power index value is based on one or more of oil production and consumption, military power, labor force, geographical location, and external debt of each player, and wherein the support index value is based on a number of interactions between each of the players and other countries. 
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the plurality of rounds comprises 50 rounds. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising, for each of the plurality of rounds, presenting to a user a wheel and spoke display the position for each of the plurality of players. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising presenting a round by round timeline display to a user. 
     
     
         9 . A computer-based system for using predictive analytics to support decision-making on an issue, the system comprising:
 a processor; and   a storage medium operably coupled to the processor, wherein the storage medium includes program instructions executable on the processor for
 identifying a plurality of players involved in the issue; 
 determining, for each of the plurality of players,
 a priority of the issue for each player, 
 a power of each player to influence the issue, and 
 a position of each player with regard to the issue; 
 
 simulating a plurality of rounds of negotiation between each of the plurality of players, wherein each round includes steps of
 calculating a median voter position, 
 calculating an expected utility for each of the plurality of players, 
 each of the plurality of players receiving a plurality of offers from at least one other player, 
 each of the plurality of players accepting one of the plurality of offers, and 
 updating power and position for each of the plurality of players; and 
 
 identifying a consensus position and ending the simulation if none of the plurality of players receives an offer. 
   
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein program instructions executable on the processor for identifying a plurality of players comprises program instructions for
 accessing a database comprising information relating to a plurality of events,   filtering the database to identify a first subset of events relating to the issue,   filtering the first subset of events to identify a second subset of events relating to a first side of the issue and a second side of the issue,   identifying a plurality of actors involved in the second subset of events,   determining a number of times each of the plurality of actors is mentioned in the second subset of events and identifying a first group of actors having a greatest number of mentions,   filtering the second subset of events to identify a third subset of events relating to the group of actors having the most mentions,   eliminating irrelevant events from the third subset of events to identify a fourth subset of events, and   determining a number of times each of the first group of actors is mentioned in the fourth subset of events, wherein the plurality of players comprises each of the first group of actors with a greatest number of mentions in the fourth subset of events.   
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein program instructions executable on the processor for determining a priority of the issue for each player comprises program instructions for determining a ratio of the number of times a player has been an initiator of an event related to the issue divided by the maximum number of times any player has been an initiator of an event related to the issue. 
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein the issue comprises an international conflict, and wherein each of the plurality of players is a country. 
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 12 , wherein program instructions executable on the processor for determining a power of each player to influence the issue comprises program instructions for combining a power index value with a support index value, wherein the power index value is based on one or more of oil production and consumption, military power, labor force, geographical location, and external debt of each player, and wherein the support index value is based on a number of interactions between each of the players and other countries. 
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein the plurality of rounds comprises 50 rounds. 
     
     
         15 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein the system further comprises a graphical user interface and wherein, for each of the plurality of rounds, the storage medium further comprises program instructions executable on the processor for presenting to a user a wheel and spoke display the position for each of the plurality of players. 
     
     
         16 . The system of  claim 9 , wherein the system further comprises a graphical user interface and wherein the storage medium further comprises program instructions executable on the processor for presenting a round by round timeline display to a user.