Method for Predicting Symmetric, Automated, Real-Time Arc Flash Energy Within a Real-Time Monitoring System

Abstract

A system for making real-time predictions about an arc flash event on an electrical system comprises a data acquisition component communicatively connected to a sensor configured to acquire real-time data output from the electrical system; an analytics server communicatively connected to the data acquisition component and comprising a virtual system modeling engine configured to generate predicted data output for the electrical system using a virtual system model of the electrical system, an analytics engine configured to monitor the real-time data output and the predicted data output of the electrical system, and an arc flash simulation engine configured to use the virtual system model updated based in the real-tune data to forecast an aspect of the arc flash event.

The invention claimed is: 
     
         1 . A system for making real-time predictions about an arc flash event comprising:
 an electrical system, wherein the electrical system includes motors and uninterrupted power supplies (UPS);   a data acquisition component configured to acquire real-time output data from the electrical system; and   an analytics server communicatively connected to the data acquisition component, the analytics server comprising:   a virtual system modeling engine configured to generate predicted output data for the electrical system using a virtual system model of the electrical system;   an analytics engine configured to monitor the real-time output data and the predicted output data of the electrical system, wherein the analytics engine is further configured to initiate a calibration and synchronization operation to update the virtual system model when a difference between the real-time output data and the predicted output data exceeds a threshold; and   an arc flash simulation engine configured to forecast at least one aspect of the arc flash event based on the updated virtual system model;   wherein all observable motors in the virtual system model are switched to an ON position or an OFF position and all of the UPS equipped with a transfer switch in the virtual system model are transferred to a by-pass position;   wherein arcing energy is calculated when all unobservable motors in the virtual system model are set to the ON position, the arcing energy is calculated when all unobservable motors in the virtual model are set to the OFF position, and the arcing energy for the ON position and the arcing energy for the OFF position are compared; and   wherein the analytics server is further configured to transfer all of the UPS in the virtual system model back to a correct position, wait a predetermined delay time, and generate updated predicted output.   
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1 , further comprising a client terminal communicatively connected to the analytics server and configured to communicate the at least one forecasted aspect. 
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the at least one forecasted aspect is communicated by way of graphics on a display interfaced with the client terminal. 
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the at least one forecasted aspect is communicated by way of text on a display interfaced with the client terminal. 
     
     
         5 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the at least one forecasted aspect is communicated by way of synthesized speech generated by the client terminal. 
     
     
         6 . The system of  claim 2 , wherein the at least one forecasted aspect is communicated by way of a paper report generated by a printing device interfaced with the client terminal. 
     
     
         7 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the threshold is a Defined Difference Tolerance (DDT) value for at least one of frequency deviation, voltage deviation, power factor deviation, and other deviations between the real-time output data and simulated output data. 
     
     
         8 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the arc flash event is a direct current (DC) arc flash event. 
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the arc flash event is an alternating current (AC) arc flash event. 
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the at least one aspect comprises a worst case arc flash event for a component within the electrical system over a specified time period. 
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 10 , wherein the component is a protective device. 
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the protective device is a switch. 
     
     
         13 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the protective device is a circuit breaker. 
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the protective device is a fuse. 
     
     
         15 . The system of  claim 11 , wherein the protective device is a relay. 
     
     
         16 . The system of  claim 10 , wherein the specified time period is 30 days. 
     
     
         17 . A system for making real-time predictions about an arc flash event comprising:
 an electrical system, wherein the electrical system includes breakers, generators, and uninterrupted power supplies (UPS);   a data acquisition component configured to acquire real-time output data from the electrical system; and   an analytics server communicatively connected to the data acquisition component, the analytics server comprising:   a virtual system modeling engine configured to generate predicted output data for the electrical system using a virtual system model of the electrical system;   an analytics engine configured to monitor the real-time output data and the predicted output data of the electrical system, wherein the analytics engine is further configured to initiate a calibration and synchronization operation to update the virtual system model when a difference between the real-time output data and the predicted output data exceeds a threshold; and   an arc flash simulation engine configured to forecast at least one aspect of the arc flash event based on the virtual system model;   wherein the breakers are in a breaker ON position or a breaker OFF position, the generators are in a generator ON position or a generator OFF position, and all of the UPS equipped with a transfer switch in the virtual system model are transferred to a by-pass position; and   wherein the analytics server is further configured to transfer all of the UPS in the virtual system model back to a correct position, wait a predetermined delay time, and generate updated predicted output.   
     
     
         18 . The system of  claim 17 , wherein the threshold is a Defined Difference Tolerance (DDT) value for at least one of frequency deviation, voltage deviation, power factor deviation, and other deviations between the real-time output data and simulated output data. 
     
     
         19 . A system for making real-time predictions about an arc flash event comprising:
 an electrical system, wherein the electrical system includes breakers, generators, motors, and uninterrupted power supplies (UPS);   a data acquisition component configured to acquire real-time output data from the electrical system; and   an analytics server communicatively connected to the data acquisition component, the analytics server comprising:   a virtual system modeling engine configured to generate predicted output data for the electrical system using a virtual system model of the electrical system;   an analytics engine configured to monitor the real-time output data and the predicted output data of the electrical system, wherein the analytics engine is further configured to initiate a calibration and synchronization operation to update the virtual system model when a difference between the real-time output data and the predicted output data exceeds a threshold; and   an arc flash simulation engine configured to forecast at least one aspect of the arc flash event based on the updated virtual system model;   wherein the breakers are in a breaker ON position or a breaker OFF position, the generators are in a generator ON position or a generator OFF position, all observable motors in the virtual system model are switched to a motor ON position or a motor OFF position, and all uninterrupted power supplies (UPS) equipped with a transfer switch in the virtual system model are transferred to a by-pass position;   wherein arcing energy is calculated when all unobservable motors in the virtual system model are set to the ON position, the arcing energy is calculated when all unobservable motors in the virtual model are set to the OFF position, and the arcing energy for the ON position and the arcing energy for the OFF position are compared; and   wherein the analytics server is further configured to transfer all the UPS in the virtual system model back to a correct position, wait a predetermined delay time, and generate updated predicted output.   
     
     
         20 . The system of  claim 19 , wherein the threshold is a Defined Difference Tolerance (DDT) value for at least one of frequency deviation, voltage deviation, power factor deviation, and other deviations between the real-time output data and simulated output data.