Method of modeling roof age of a structure

Abstract

A computer-implemented method for determining modeled roof age of a structure is provided. Such methods comprise identifying a target structure for which an estimated roof age is desired, receiving data related to the target structure in computer-readable form, and inputting the data related to the target structure into a generalized linear model to determine a Per-Property Modeled Roof Age of the target structure. The modeled roof age preferably accounts for (i) the height of the trees, (ii) the proximity of the trees to the target structure, and (iii) the weather conditions for the structure's geographic location. Such methods can be applied in practice by substituting a typically inaccurate reported roof age with a more realistic modeled roof age in making homeowners insurance decisions.

1 . A method for determining per-property modeled roof age, the method comprising:
 identifying a target structure;   obtaining one or more digital images of the target structure within a selected geographical radius using one or more satellite or aerial imaging apparatus;   identifying a number of one or more trees within the selected geographical radius from one or more signals represented in the one or more digital images;   determining from the signal, proximity of the trees to the target structure;   converting intensity of the signal into height of the trees;   identifying type and frequency of weather conditions for a geographic area in which the target structure is physically located;   creating a mathematical model of roof age for the target structure based on:
 (i) the height of the trees, 
 (ii) the proximity of the trees to the target structure, and 
 (iii) the frequency of weather conditions for the geographic area; 
   calculating a modeled roof age of the target structure using the model.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising using the modeled roof age as a substitute for and as a more accurate alternative for reported roof age of the structure. 
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the trees are assigned to a category defined by:
 (i) tall trees with a height of 20 feet and taller and located within a first radius surrounding the target structure;   (ii) tall trees with a height of 20 feet and taller and located within a second radius surrounding the target structure that is larger than the first radius;   (iii) medium trees with a height ranging from above 0 feet up to 20 feet and located within the first radius of the target structure; or   (iv) medium trees with a height ranging from above 0 feet up to 20 feet and located within the second radius of the target structure.   
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the mathematical model is further based on:
 (i) age of the target structure,   (ii) age of one or more structures within a radius of the target structure,   (iii) type or rating of roofing material of the target structure, and/or   (iv) number of stories or height of the target structure.   
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the weather conditions include one or more of:
 (i) frequency of weather in the geographic area capable of damaging roofs,   (ii) average wind speed,   (iii) record wind speed,   (iv) average size of hail,   (v) record size of hail, and/or   (vi) intensity of weather-related fire incidents.   
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising calculating an area average roof age based on data obtained from a plurality of structures in the geographical area in which the structure is located and using the area average roof age in the mathematical model. 
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 3 , wherein each category is characterized as a Positive Tree Proximity or a Negative Tree Proximity. 
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 4 , wherein the age of the target structure or the age of the structures within a radius of the target structure is obtained from Census, County Tax Assessors, state Building Departments, or real estate databases. 
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 4 , wherein the type of roofing material is obtained from purchase orders or invoices from roofing material manufacturers or roofing material distributors, from home inspections, or from purchase orders from roofing contractors. 
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the mathematical model is a generalized linear model. 
     
     
         11 . The method of  claim 10 , wherein the generalized linear model is a Poisson regression. 
     
     
         12 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the mathematical model is defined by the following equation:
   Estimated roof year=[ A *(Year Structure was Built)]+[ B *(Frequency of Weather in the Geographic Area Capable of Damaging Roofs)]+[ C *(Positive Tree Proximity)]+[ D *(Negative Tree Proximity)],   wherein:   A, B, C, and D are each independently a number between −30 and +30; and   the Frequency of Weather, the Positive Tree Proximity, and the Negative Tree Proximity is each independently selected from a number between 0 and 1.   
     
     
         13 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the mathematical model is defined by the following equation:
   Estimated roof age=[ A 1*(Structure Age Between 0-15 yrs.)]+[ A 2*(Structure Age Between 16-30 yrs.)]+[ A 3*(Structure Age 31 yrs. or later)]+[ B *(Frequency of Weather in the Geographic Area Capable of Damaging Roofs)]+[ C *(Positive Tree Proximity)]+[ D *(Negative Tree Proximity)];   wherein:   A1, A2, and A3 are each a number between 0 and 30;   B, C, and D are each independently a number between −30 and +30; and   the Frequency of Weather, the Positive Tree Proximity, and the Negative Tree Proximity is each independently selected from a number between 0 and 1.   
     
     
         14 . A computer-implemented method for estimating roof age of a structure, the method comprising:
 identifying a target structure for which an estimated roof age is desired;   receiving data related to the target structure in computer-readable form; and   inputting the data related to the target structure into a generalized linear model to determine a Per-Property Modeled Roof Age of the target structure.   
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 14 , further comprising:
 obtaining one or more digital images of the target structure within a selected geographical radius using one or more satellite or aerial imaging apparatus;   identifying one or more tree within the selected radius from one or more signals represented in the digital image;   determining from the signal, proximity of the tree to the target structure;   converting intensity of the signal into height of the tree; and   using the tree height and proximity in the linear model to determine roof age.   
     
     
         16 . The method of  claim 15 , wherein the trees are assigned to a category defined by:
 (i) tall trees with a height of 20 feet and taller and located within a first radius surrounding the target structure;   (ii) tall trees with a height of 20 feet and taller and located within a second radius surrounding the target structure that is larger than the first radius;   (iii) medium trees with a height ranging from above 0 feet up to 20 feet and located within the first radius of the target structure; or   (iv) medium trees with a height ranging from above 0 feet up to 20 feet and located within the second radius of the target structure.   
     
     
         17 . The method of  claim 14 , wherein the mathematical model is further based on:
 (i) age of the target structure,   (ii) age of one or more structures within a radius of the target structure,   (iii) type or rating of roofing material of the target structure, and/or   (iv) number of stories or height of the target structure.   
     
     
         18 . The method of  claim 14 , wherein the weather conditions include one or more of:
 (i) frequency of weather in the geographic area capable of damaging roofs,   (ii) average wind speed,   (iii) record wind speed,   (iv) average size of hail,   (v) record size of hail, and/or   (vi) intensity of weather-related fire incidents.   
     
     
         19 . The method of  claim 14 , wherein the mathematical model is defined by the following equation:
   Estimated roof year=[ A *(Year Structure was Built)]+[ B *(Frequency of Weather in the Geographic Area Capable of Damaging Roofs)]+[ C *(Positive Tree Proximity)]+[ D *(Negative Tree Proximity)];   wherein:   A, B, C, and D are each independently a number between −30 and +30; and   the Frequency of Weather, the Positive Tree Proximity, and the Negative Tree Proximity is each independently selected from a number between 0 and 1.   
     
     
         20 . The method of  claim 14 , wherein the mathematical model is defined by the following equation:
   Estimated roof age=[ A 1*(Structure Age Between 0-15 yrs.)]+[ A 2*(Structure Age Between 16-30 yrs.)]+[ A 3*(Structure Age 31 yrs. or later)]+[ B *(Frequency of Weather in the Geographic Area Capable of Damaging Roofs)]+[ C *(Positive Tree Proximity)]+[ D *(Negative Tree Proximity)];   wherein:   A1, A2, and A3 are each a number between 0 and 30;   B, C, and D are each independently a number between −30 and +30; and   the Frequency of Weather, the Positive Tree Proximity, and the Negative Tree Proximity is each independently selected from a number between 0 and 1.