Methods of assessing risk of developing a severe response to coronavirus infection

Abstract

The present disclosure relates to methods and systems for assessing the risk of a human subject developing a severe response to a Coronavirus infection, such as a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus infection.

1 - 12 . (canceled) 
     
     
         13 . A method for determining the probability a human subject will develop a severe response to a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the method comprising:
 i) performing a clinical risk assessment of the human subject wherein the clinical risk assessment comprises:
 (a) obtaining information from the subject on age, gender, race/ethnicity, height, weight, does the human have or has had an cerebrovascular disease, does the human have or has had a chronic kidney disease, does the human have or has had diabetes, does the human have or has had an haematological cancer, does the human have or has had hypertension, does the human have or has had an non-haematological cancer, and does the human have or has had a respiratory disease (other than asthma); and 
 (b) assigning a clinical β coefficient based on each piece of information obtained from the subject in step (i)(a); 
   ii) determining the Log Odds (LO) using the following formula:
   LO= X +Σ Clinical β coefficients
 
    wherein X is −1.8 to −0.8;   iii) determining the probability the subject will develop a severe response to a SARS-CoV-2 infection using the following formula:
     e   LO /(1 +e   LO ), which is then multiplied by 100. 
   
     
     
         14 . The method of  claim 13 , wherein in step (ii) X is −1.36523. 
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 13 , wherein the subject is between 18 and 84 years of age and in the clinical risk assessment
 a) a β coefficient of −1.3111 is assigned if the subject is between 18 and 29 years of age;   b) a β coefficient of −0.8348 is assigned if the subject is between 30 and 39 years of age;   c) a β coefficient of −0.4038 is assigned if the subject is between 40 and 49 years of age;   d) a β coefficient of 0.5747727 is assigned if the subject is between 70 and 74 years of age;   e) a β coefficient of 0.8243711 is assigned if the subject is between 75 and 79 years of age;   f) a β coefficient of 1.013973 is assigned if the subject is between 80 and 84 years of age;   g) a β coefficient of 0.2444891 is assigned if the subject is male;   h) a β coefficient of 0.29311 is assigned if the subject is an ethnicity other than Caucasian;   i) the subjects height (in metres (m)) and weight (in kilograms (kg)) is applied to the formula: (10 times m2) divided by kg, which is multiplied by −1.602056 to provide the β coefficient to be assigned;   j) a β coefficient of 0.4041337 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a cerebrovascular disease;   k) a β coefficient of 0.6938494 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a chronic kidney disease;   l) a β coefficient of 0.4297612 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having diabetes;   m) a β coefficient of 1.003877 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having haematological cancer;   n) a β coefficient of 0.2922307 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having hypertension;   o) a β coefficient of 0.2558464 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a non-haematological cancer; and   p) a β coefficient of 1.173753 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a respiratory disease (other than asthma).   
     
     
         16 . The method of  claim 14 , wherein the subject is between 18 and 84 years of age and in the clinical risk assessment
 a) a β coefficient of −1.3111 is assigned if the subject is between 18 and 29 years of age;   b) a β coefficient of −0.8348 is assigned if the subject is between 30 and 39 years of age;   c) a β coefficient of −0.4038 is assigned if the subject is between 40 and 49 years of age;   d) a β coefficient of 0.5747727 is assigned if the subject is between 70 and 74 years of age;   e) a β coefficient of 0.8243711 is assigned if the subject is between 75 and 79 years of age;   f) a β coefficient of 1.013973 is assigned if the subject is between 80 and 84 years of age;   g) a β coefficient of 0.2444891 is assigned if the subject is male;   h) a β coefficient of 0.29311 is assigned if the subject is an ethnicity other than Caucasian;   i) the subjects height (in metres (m)) and weight (in kilograms (kg)) is applied to the formula: (10 times m2) divided by kg, which is multiplied by −1.602056 to provide the β coefficient to be assigned;   j) a β coefficient of 0.4041337 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a cerebrovascular disease;   k) a β coefficient of 0.6938494 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a chronic kidney disease;   l) a β coefficient of 0.4297612 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having diabetes;   m) a β coefficient of 1.003877 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having haematological cancer;   n) a β coefficient of 0.2922307 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having hypertension;   o) a β coefficient of 0.2558464 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a non-haematological cancer; and   p) a β coefficient of 1.173753 is assigned if the subject has ever been diagnosed as having a respiratory disease (other than asthma).   
     
     
         17 . The method of  claim 13 , further comprising comparing the Log Odds (LO) to a predetermined threshold, wherein if the score is at, or above, the threshold the subject is assessed at being at risk of developing a severe response to a Coronavirus infection. 
     
     
         18 . The method of  claim 14 , further comprising comparing the Log Odds (LO) to a predetermined threshold, wherein if the score is at, or above, the threshold the subject is assessed at being at risk of developing a severe response to a Coronavirus infection. 
     
     
         19 . The method of  claim 15 , further comprising comparing the Log Odds (LO) to a predetermined threshold, wherein if the score is at, or above, the threshold the subject is assessed at being at risk of developing a severe response to a Coronavirus infection.