Price prediction device

Abstract

A price prediction device includes an attribute acquisition unit that acquires data indicating attributes of consumers, a history acquisition unit that acquires data indicating a history of a product purchased by the consumer and a purchase price of the product, a probability acquisition unit that derives a selection probability of a target product being selected from a product group for each consumer based on the attribute and the history, and a derivation unit that derives an optimal price of the target product for each consumer based on the selection probability of the target product and a selling price of the target product, by using a price prediction model constructed by machine learning.

1 . A price prediction device comprising:
 an attribute acquisition unit configured to acquire data indicating attributes of consumers;   a history acquisition unit configured to acquire data indicating a history of a product purchased by a consumer and a purchase price of the product;   a probability acquisition unit configured to derive a selection probability of a target product being selected from a product group for each consumer based on the attribute and the history; and   a derivation unit configured to derive an optimal price of the target product for each consumer based on the selection probability of the target product and a selling price of the target product, by using a price prediction model constructed by machine learning.   
     
     
         2 . The price prediction device according to  claim 1 ,
 wherein the price prediction model is constructed by machine learning so that the selection probability of the target product by the consumer, a product price of the target product, and a presence or absence of purchase of the target product by the consumer are input data, and the optimal price is output data,   the product price   is a purchase price of the target product by the consumer when the consumer purchases the target product, and   is the selling price of the target product at a point in time when the consumer has purchased another product competing with the target product when the consumer does not purchase the target product.   
     
     
         3 . The price prediction device according to  claim 2 ,
 wherein, in the price prediction model, the optimal price is output so that a value of a loss function is minimized, and   in the loss function,   in a case in which the consumer purchases the target product, a loss becomes large when a price lower than the product price is derived as the optimal price, and   in a case in which the consumer does not purchase the target product, the loss becomes large when a price higher than the product price is derived as the optimal price.   
     
     
         4 . The price prediction device according to  claim 2 , wherein the price prediction model includes a selling price of another product competing with the target product as the input data. 
     
     
         5 . The price prediction device according to  claim 2 , wherein the price prediction model includes a selection probability for each consumer of another product competing with the target product as the input data. 
     
     
         6 . The price prediction device according to  claim 1 , further comprising an output unit configured to output a relationship between the price and the number of sales in the target product based on the optimal price for each of a plurality of consumers derived by the derivation unit.