Probability Analysis and Prediction Modeling

Abstract

A system is disclosed for forecasting costs and determining probabilities, along with the use of prediction modeling. The system analyzes previous actions to determine future actions, while using cost prediction modeling.

1 . A system comprising:
 a network interface in communication with a memory;   the memory in communication with a processor for enabling forecasting and overbooking;   the processor, when executing a computer program, executes operations comprising:   forecasting, by the processor, a spoiled seat (SS) cost for each seat in a plurality of seats associated with the flight, wherein the plurality of seats associated with a flight are obtained from an airline central data repository over the internet by invoking logic within modules by passing parameters relating to requests for data;   forecasting, by the processor, a denied boarding (DB) cost for the flight based on a probability of a volunteer not taking the flight;   determining, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time and based on passenger name record characteristics, a booked passenger no-show forecast (NSF) for each booked passenger associated with the flight, wherein the booked passenger NSF is based upon whether the respective passenger flew on a previous leg of a passenger itinerary;   aggregating, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, the booked passenger NSF and an unbooked passenger NSF to create a flight NSF;   standardizing, by the processor, the SS cost, the DB cost and the flight NSF into a common format in a database;   filtering, by the processor and using a firewall, packets of data including the SS cost, the DB cost and the flight NSF; and   determining, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time and using a flight cost prediction model, an authorized seat allocation (AU) for the flight that minimizes an overbooking cost, wherein the overbooking cost is based upon an accumulation of each of the SS cost, the DB cost and the flight NSF.   
     
     
         2 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the DB cost is based upon at least one of a non-compensation factor, a voucher amount, a voucher breakage factor, an expected percentage of volunteers, an ill-will factor, an involuntary DB cost, an expected accommodations cost, a double DB factor or the probability of voluntary denial. 
     
     
         3 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the booked passenger NSF is further based upon at least one of the complete passenger itinerary of each respective passenger or an adjustment factor, wherein the adjustment factor is determined based upon historical NSF data. 
     
     
         4 . The system of  claim 1 , wherein the determining the booked passenger NSF comprises determining, for at least a subset of booked passengers, a conditional probability of a passenger showing for a second leg given the passenger flew a first leg. 
     
     
         5 . The system of  claim 4 , further comprising adjusting the booked passenger NSF in response to determining, for at least a subset of booked passengers, whether the first leg and the second leg are scheduled for the same day. 
     
     
         6 . The system of  claim 1 , further comprising determining a next active leg (NAL) for a first booked passenger, wherein the first booked passenger is one of a plurality of passengers associated with the flight. 
     
     
         7 . The system of  claim 6 , further comprising determining a first booked passenger NSF as a probability that the first booked passenger will show for the NAL, wherein the booked passenger NSF is based upon the first booked passenger NSF. 
     
     
         8 . The system of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 transmitting, by the computer, the AU to a reservation system and a revenue management system;
 wherein the revenue management system determines, based on the updated authorization parameter, a number of additional seats to be sold for the flight and a respective price for each additional seat, 
   receiving, by the computer and from the reservation system and the revenue management system, the number of additional seats to be sold for the flight and the respective price for each additional seat;   providing, by the computer, a certain number of tickets to access the flight based on the AU and the number of additional seats; and   providing access information, by the computer and in real-time, that allows access to the flight for the certain number of the tickets.   
     
     
         9 . The system of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 calculating, by the processor, a first expected marginal seat revenue (EMSR) for each first class seat on the flight; and   comparing, by the processor, the respective EMSR to a second EMSR for a potential sale of an additional coach seat.   
     
     
         10 . The system of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 associating, by the processor and in a database, each SS cost, the DB cost and the flight NSF;   using, by the processor, a key field in pre-selected at least one of databases or data sectors to speed searches;   conducting, by the processor, sequential searches through all tables and files to speed the searches;   sorting, by the processor, records in a file according to a known order to simplify lookup;   completing, by the processor, a database merge function by using the key field;   tuning, by the processor, the database to optimize database performance;   placing, by the processor, frequently used files on separate file systems to reduce in and out bottlenecks; and   obtaining, by the computer-based system, each SS cost, the DB cost and the flight NSF from the database.   
     
     
         11 . The system of  claim 10 , further comprising determining a coach upgrade parameter based upon the comparing. 
     
     
         12 . The system of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 creating, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout a period of time, a flight-dependent and time-dependent voucher based on the SS cost, the DB cost, the booked passenger NSF, the unbooked passenger NSF, the flight NSF, the AU, the overbooking cost and most current conditions to minimize costs,   wherein the voucher dynamically and iteratively changes throughout the day to minimize costs based on the SS cost, the DB cost, the booked passenger NSF, the unbooked passenger NSF, the flight NSF, the AU, the overbooking cost and most current conditions; and   providing, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time and to a customer mobile device, the offer for the AU.   
     
     
         13 . A system comprising:
 a network interface in communication with a memory; and   the memory in communication with a processor,   the processor, when executing a computer program, executes operations comprising:   determining, by an optimizer module in communication with the processor, a capacity (CAP) from an airline central data repository;   forecasting, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout a period of time, a no-show forecast (NSF) based on passenger name characteristics from a passenger system;   determining, by the optimizer module in communication with the processor and using a flight cost prediction model in a forecaster module and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, an optimal booking authorization level (AU) that minimizes an overbooking cost,   determining, by a cost engine in communication with the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, a spoiled seat (SS) cost;   determining, by the cost engine in communication with the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, a denied boarding (DB) cost based on a probability of a volunteer not taking a flight;   standardizing, by the processor, the AU, the SS cost, the DB cost and the NSF into a common format in a database;   filtering, by the processor and using a firewall, packets of data including the AU, the SS cost, the DB cost and the NSF;   modeling, by the cost engine in communication with the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, the DB cost as an aggregate, for each passenger denied boarding, of a breakage adjusted voucher cost, an involuntary rate draft cost, a rolling denied boarding marginal cost and a secondary accommodations cost; and   updating, by the processor and on a database and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, an authorization parameter to create an updated authorization parameter for the flight based upon the AU to maximize revenue for the flight and minimize costs of overbooking.   
     
     
         14 . The system of  claim 13 , further comprising:
 providing, by the processor and to a revenue management system and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, the updated authorization parameter;   generating, by the processor, a first electronic voucher having a first authorization parameter for a first passenger based on the updated authorization parameter, wherein the first authorization parameter includes a first voucher amount and a first voucher utilization factor;   evaluating, by the processor, denied boarding for airline flights during a time period and based on an operational factor;   determining, by the processor, an impact of the denied boarding on a plurality of the airline flights that are scheduled for departure during the time period;   iteratively updating, by the processor, the evaluation of the denied boarding during predetermined intervals;   adjusting, by the processor and based on the updating and based on the first authorization parameter, a cost on the electronic voucher to provide a different first voucher amount for the first passenger on the airline flights throughout the day based on the latest conditions during the latest time period;   determining, by the processor, a change to the first authorization parameter for other passengers for the denied boarding for the airline flights;   adjusting, by the processor and based on the determining, the first authorization parameter on the first electronic voucher, wherein the adjusted first authorization parameter provides for a re-accommodation on an alternate accommodation flight among the airline flights in a same directional market for the first passenger throughout the day, based on a plurality of forecasts for a cost of the re-accommodation for each of a plurality of denied passengers for the flight and based on the change to the first authorization parameter for the other passengers for the denied boarding for the airline flights;   determining, by the processor, that the alternate accommodation flight is a number of hours passed the airline flights;   adjusting, by the processor, the first authorization parameter on the electronic voucher, wherein the adjusted first authorization parameter provides for access to hotel, meal and transportation (HMT) services due to the number of hours to the alternate accommodation flight; and   adjusting, by the processor, a second authorization parameter on a second electronic voucher for a second passenger of the alternate accommodation flight, wherein the adjusted second authorization parameter allows for the first electronic voucher to provide access to the alternate accommodation flight by the first passenger.   
     
     
         15 . The system of  claim 13 , further comprising:
 providing, by the processor, a certain number of updated tickets to access the flight;   providing access information, by the processor and to an airline kiosk, that allows the access to the flight to certain passengers with the updated tickets,   wherein the airline kiosk provides an updated boarding passes with machine readable data to the passengers;   receiving, by the processor and from an airport scanner, scanned data from the updated tickets, wherein the access to the flight is provided in response to an airport scanner scanning the machine readable data on the updated tickets and verifying the machine readable data on the updated tickets;   providing denial information, by the processor, that denies the access to the flight to denied passengers with the updated tickets; and   compensating, by the processor, the denied passengers.   
     
     
         16 . The system of  claim 13 , wherein the DB cost is determined by:
     DB  cost i   =DDB   i *[(1− ncf )*(voucher_amt* b*pv   i +(ill_will+exp_invol_cost)*(1− pv   i )+ HMT   i )];
   wherein,
 DB cost i  is DB cost of the i th  passenger who is denied boarding; 
 ncf is no Compensation Factor, the percentage of DBs that do not qualify to be compensated due to non-compliance, 0≤ncf≤1; 
 voucher_amt is an actual amount of the voucher offered to passengers who volunteer to DB; 
 b is a breakage factor, an expected percentage of voucher dollars that will be used, 0≤b≤1; 
 given i DBs, pv i  is an expected percentage of volunteers, calculated from a linear regression model using historical data, 0≤pv≤1; 
 ill_will is an extra cost added due to bad customer image and possible loss of customers due to involuntarily denying boarding to passengers; 
 exp_invol_cost i  is an expected payout to an involuntary DB passenger; 
 HMT i  is the expected hotel, meal and transportations costs of the i th  DB passenger, based on the time to accommodate the passenger; and, 
 DDB i  is a double DB factor, increases the DB cost based on the probability that this DB causes another DB, wherein DDB i  increases depending on the load factor of an entire directional market and the station load factor for that day, and wherein DDB i ≥1. 
   
     
     
         17 . The system of  claim 13 ,
 wherein the overbooking cost is based upon the CAP, the NSF, the SScost and the DB cost,   wherein the DB cost is based on actual passengers booked, market load factors, accommodations cost and a probability a denied boarding will result in a voucher, and   wherein the DB cost is dynamically calculated based upon a plurality of forecasts for a re-accommodation cost for each of a plurality of denied passengers for the flight.   
     
     
         18 . The system of  claim 13 ,
 wherein the updated authorization parameter impacts the revenue management system and a reservation system,   wherein the revenue management system determines, based on the updated authorization parameter, a number of additional seats to be sold for the flight that minimizes impacts of overbooking of the flight and optimizes just in time inventory for the flight and a respective price for each additional seat, and   wherein the revenue management system transmits to the reservation system the number of additional seats to be sold for the flight that minimizes the impacts of the overbooking of the flight and optimizes just in time inventory for the flight and the respective price for each of the additional seat.   
     
     
         19 . The system of  claim 13 , further comprising:
 transforming, by the processor and in real-time, the reservation system to provide for the number of additional seats to be sold for the flight that minimizes the impacts of the overbooking of the flight and optimizes just in time inventory for the flight and the respective price for each of the additional seat;   transforming, by the processor, a webpage to provide for availability for booking the number of additional seats for the flight that minimizes the impacts of the overbooking of the flight and optimizes just in time inventory for the flight, wherein the webpage and the availability for booking changes throughout the day based on the updating the updated authorization parameter and most current conditions to minimize costs; and   providing, by the processor and in real-time and to a customer mobile device, the webpage and the availability for booking for the number of additional seats for the flight that minimizes the impacts of the overbooking of the flight and optimizes just in time inventory for the flight.   
     
     
         20 . The system of  claim 13 , further comprising selecting for a first denied passenger a first AA flight from the plurality of AA flights, wherein the first denied passenger is one of the plurality of denied passengers.