Modification risk output device, modification risk output method, and modification risk output program

Abstract

The congestion degree calculation means 81 calculates a congestion degree at a vehicle and a stop. The diagram output means 82 outputs a modified diagram in which a current diagram is modified by optimizing an objective function learned using business history data including an actual change of a diagram. The risk calculation means 83 calculates a current risk which is a risk occurring at the present time, and a modification risk which is a risk caused by modifying the diagram, based on the congestion degree. The risk output means 84 outputs the calculated current risk and the modification risk.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A modification risk output device comprising:
 a memory storing instructions; and   one or more processors configured to execute the instructions to:   calculate a congestion degree at a vehicle and a stop;   output a modified diagram in which a current diagram is modified by optimizing an objective function learned using business history data including an actual change of a diagram;   calculate a current risk which is a risk occurring at the present time, and a modification risk which is a risk caused by modifying the diagram, based on the congestion degree; and   output the calculated current risk and the modification risk.   
     
     
         2 . The modification risk output device according to  claim 1 , wherein the processor is configured to execute the instructions to:
 calculate a risk for each cause based on an occurrence probability model of the risk assumed for each cause according to the congestion degree at each time and each stop; and   output the calculated current risk and modification risk for each cause.   
     
     
         3 . The modification risk output device according to  claim 1 , wherein the processor is configured to execute the instructions to:
 acquire a situation estimated at current and future at the vehicle and the stop; and   calculate the congestion degree based on the situation estimated at the vehicle and the stop.   
     
     
         4 . The modification risk output device according to  claim 3 , wherein the processor is configured to execute the instructions to:
 execute a simulator that simulates passenger boarding and alighting at each stop;   estimate a degree of passenger stagnation at least one of the current and future at the stop and vehicle, or operation status of the vehicle; and   calculate the congestion degree at the vehicle and the stop based on the degree of passenger stagnation or the operation status.   
     
     
         5 . The modification risk output device according to  claim 4 , wherein the processor is configured to execute the instructions to:
 use the distribution of the number of passengers from a first stop to a second stop at each time to estimate the degree of passenger stagnation or the operation status in the simulator.   
     
     
         6 . The modification risk output device according to  claim 3 , wherein the processor is configured to execute the instructions to:
 acquire entry/exit result data at each stop that is collected sequentially;   estimate the current degree of passenger stagnation at each stop; and   calculate the congestion degree at the vehicle and the stop based on the degree of passenger stagnation.   
     
     
         7 . The modification risk output device according to  claim 1 , wherein the processor is configured to execute the instructions to:
 accept a selection instruction for an objective function to be used for optimization from among the objective functions prepared for each situation and each objective to change the diagram; and   output the modified diagram by optimizing the selected objective function.   
     
     
         8 . A modification risk output method comprising:
 calculating a congestion degree at a vehicle and a stop;   outputting a modified diagram in which a current diagram is modified by optimizing an objective function learned using business history data including an actual change of a diagram;   calculating a current risk which is a risk occurring at the present time, and a modification risk which is a risk caused by modifying the diagram, based on the congestion degree; and   outputting the calculated current risk and the modification risk.   
     
     
         9 . A modification risk output method according to  claim 8 , further comprising:
 calculating a risk for each cause based on an occurrence probability model of the risk assumed for each cause according to the congestion degree at each time and each stop; and   outputting the calculated current risk and modification risk for each cause.   
     
     
         10 . A non-transitory computer readable information recording medium storing a modification risk output program when executed by a processor, that performs a method for:
 calculating a congestion degree at a vehicle and a stop;   outputting a modified diagram in which a current diagram is modified by optimizing an objective function learned using business history data including an actual change of a diagram;   calculating a current risk which is a risk occurring at the present time, and a modification risk which is a risk caused by modifying the diagram, based on the congestion degree; and   outputting the calculated current risk and the modification risk.   
     
     
         11 . The non-transitory computer readable information recording medium according to  claim 10 , wherein
 a risk for each cause is calculated based on an occurrence probability model of the risk assumed for each cause according to the congestion degree at each time and each stop, and   the calculated current risk and modification risk for each cause is output.