Predictive wear modeling for actively controlled sealing element

Abstract

A method of predictive wear state modeling for an actively controlled sealing element includes applying an external energy source to actuate the sealing element to form an interference fit with a pipe member disposed through a lumen of the sealing element, actively controlling the application of the external energy source to maintain the sealing element's interference fit with the pipe member, collecting process control data at predetermined intervals, determining, for each predetermined interval, a raw value of energy absorbed by the sealing element based at least in part on the collected process control data, and providing an indication of the raw value of energy being absorbed by the actively controlled sealing element.

What is claimed is: 
     
         1 . A method of predictive wear state modeling for an actively controlled sealing element comprising:
 applying an external energy source to actuate the sealing element to form an interference fit with a pipe member disposed through a lumen of the sealing element;   actively controlling the application of the external energy to maintain the sealing element's interference fit with the pipe member;   collecting process control data at predetermined intervals;   for each predetermined interval, determining a raw value of energy absorbed by the sealing element based at least in part on the collected process control data;   providing an indication of the raw value of energy being absorbed by the actively controlled sealing element.   
     
     
         2 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 adjusting the raw value of energy absorbed based on one or more known physical relationships, correction factors, logical functions, or statistical functions.   
     
     
         3 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 calculating a raw value of total energy absorbed by the sealing element by summing the energy absorbed per predetermined period for a plurality of periods.   
     
     
         4 . The method of  claim 3 , further comprising:
 adjusting the raw value of total energy absorbed with historical data, process control data, starting weight of the sealing element, and final weight of the sealing element.   
     
     
         5 . The method of  claim 3 , further comprising:
 determining a terminal value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element.   
     
     
         6 . The method of  claim 3 , further comprising:
 determining past values for total energy absorbed by similar sealing elements.   
     
     
         7 . The method of  claim 3 , further comprising:
 predicting a terminal value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element based on historical data.   
     
     
         8 . The method of  claim 7 , further comprising:
 predicting a remaining life for the sealing element based on the total energy absorbed by the sealing element and the predicted terminal value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element.   
     
     
         9 . The method of  claim 1 , further comprising:
 generating a model relating historical weight loss values of sealing elements to raw value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element.   
     
     
         10 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the actively controlled sealing element comprises a durable seal insert co-molded with a buffer material. 
     
     
         11 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein process control data includes one or more of axial displacement of the pipe member, angular displacement of the pipe member, axial velocity of the pipe member, angular velocity of the pipe member, closing pressure of an upper annular packer system of an ACD annular sealing system, closing pressure of a lower annular packer system of an ACD annular sealing system, lubrication pressure, wellbore pressure, temperature, flow rate, and cumulative values thereof. 
     
     
         12 . The method of  claim 1 , wherein the raw value of energy absorbed may be determined by calculating a normal force corresponding to pressure applied to a sealing element and the contact area between the sealing element and the pipe member, calculating a displacement of the pipe member relative to the sealing element, calculating the raw value of energy absorbed by the sealing element as a product of the normal force and the displacement. 
     
     
         13 . A non-transitory computer-readable medium comprising software instructions that, when executed by a processor, perform a method of predictive wear state modeling for an actively controlled sealing element comprising:
 applying an external energy source to actuate the sealing element to form an interference fit with a pipe member disposed through a lumen of the sealing element;   actively controlling the application of the external energy to maintain the sealing element's interference fit with the pipe member;   collecting process control data at predetermined intervals;   for each predetermined interval, determining a raw value of energy absorbed by the sealing element based at least in part on the collected process control data;   providing an indication of the raw value of energy being absorbed by the actively controlled sealing element.   
     
     
         14 . The method of  claim 13 , further comprising:
 adjusting the raw value of energy absorbed based on one or more known physical relationships, correction factors, logical functions, or statistical functions.   
     
     
         15 . The method of  claim 13 , further comprising:
 calculating a raw value of total energy absorbed by the sealing element by summing the energy absorbed per predetermined period for a plurality of periods.   
     
     
         16 . The method of  claim 15 , further comprising:
 adjusting the raw value of total energy absorbed with historical data, process control data, starting weight of the sealing element, and final weight of the sealing element.   
     
     
         17 . The method of  claim 15 , further comprising:
 determining a terminal value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element.   
     
     
         18 . The method of  claim 15 , further comprising:
 determining past values for total energy absorbed by similar sealing elements.   
     
     
         19 . The method of  claim 15 , further comprising:
 predicting a terminal value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element based on historical data.   
     
     
         20 . The method of  claim 19 , further comprising:
 predicting a remaining life for the sealing element based on the total energy absorbed by the sealing element and the predicted terminal value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element.   
     
     
         21 . The method of  claim 13 , further comprising:
 generating a model relating historical weight loss values of sealing elements to raw value for total energy absorbed by the sealing element.   
     
     
         22 . The method of  claim 13 , wherein the actively controlled sealing element comprises a durable seal insert co-molded with a buffer material. 
     
     
         23 . The method of  claim 13 , wherein process control data includes one or more of axial displacement of the pipe member, angular displacement of the pipe member, axial velocity of the pipe member, angular velocity of the pipe member, closing pressure of an upper annular packer system of an ACD annular sealing system, closing pressure of a lower annular packer system of an ACD annular sealing system, lubrication pressure, wellbore pressure, temperature, flow rate, and cumulative values thereof. 
     
     
         24 . The method of  claim 13 , wherein the raw value of energy absorbed may be determined by calculating a normal force corresponding to pressure applied to a sealing element and the contact area between the sealing element and the pipe member, calculating a displacement of the pipe member relative to the sealing element, calculating the raw value of energy absorbed by the sealing element as a product of the normal force and the displacement.