Method and system for optimized scheduling

Abstract

A method of optimizing the scheduling of tasks may be used to schedule telephone contact attempts through an automated dialing system (20). The method includes receiving an account data file comprising account information for a plurality of accounts to be processed over a processing period. This processing period is divided into a plurality of contact attempt periods. The method also includes producing for each of the plurality of accounts an action result probability for each contact attempt period. The method also includes producing or determining a priority value for each of the accounts, determining a quantity of contact resources available over the processing period, and determining resource costs for each contact attempt. These quantities or values, along with the action result probability, represent parameters over which the scheduling may be optimized. Once the parameters are determined the method includes producing a contact attempt value for each account and each contact period. The contact attempt value comprises a numerical value representing the relative desirability of attempting to contact the respective account during the respective contact period considering the account's priority value, probability of right party contact, quantity of contact resources available, and the costs of making the contact attempt. After the contact attempt values are assigned to each account and each attempt period, the method includes making contact attempts within each contact attempt period in order of descending contact attempt value. Finally, the method of the invention includes collecting contact attempt history data.

We claim: 
     
       1. A method of optimizing the allocation of resources to perform a plurality of task attempts in light of a variant which comprises a plurality of permissible variations, the method comprising the steps of: (a) computing an action result probability for each task attempt and each permissible variation of the variant;   (b) producing a priority value for each task attempt;   (c) determining a quantity of resources available within a time period for accomplishing the plurality of task attempts;   (d) determining resource costs associated with each task attempt;   (e) for each task attempt, producing a task attempt value, each task attempt value comprising a numerical value representing a relative desirability of performing the task attempt for the respective permissible variation considering the priority value for each task attempt, the probability of positive result for each task attempt and each permissible variation, the quantity of resources available for making the task attempts, and the resource costs associated with each task attempt; and   (f) performing the task attempts within each permissible variation in order of descending task attempt value.   
     
     
       2. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of producing a task attempt value for each task attempt and each permissible variation of the variant comprises: (a) solving the linear program ##EQU3## with constraints ##EQU4## to produce a solved value x ij  for each task attempt and each permissible variation of the variant;   __________________________________________________________________________
where                                                                     
    i  = task attempt 1 . . . N                                           
    j  = permissible variation 1 . . . J                                  
    k  = resource 1 . . . K                                               
    x.sub.ij                                                              
       = proportion of task attempt i performed with permissible variant  
         j                                                                
    p.sub.ij                                                              
       = probability of success when performing task attempt i with       
         permissible variant j                                            
    a.sub.ij.sup.k                                                        
       = amount of resource k used when performing task attempt i with    
         permissible variant j                                            
    c.sub.ij                                                              
       = priority value of performing task attempt i with permissible     
         variant j                                                        
    b.sup.k                                                               
       = available amount of resource k                                   
__________________________________________________________________________
       (b) associating the solved value x ij  with its respective task attempt and permissible variation of the variant.   
     
     
       3. A method of optimizing the scheduling of telephone contact attempts through an automated dialing system, the method comprising the steps of: (a) receiving an account data file comprising account information for a plurality of accounts to be processed over a processing period, the processing period being divided into a plurality of contact attempt periods;   (b) for each of the plurality of accounts, producing an action result probability for each contact period;   (c) producing a priority value for each of the plurality of accounts; (d) determining a quantity of contact resources available over the processing period;   (e) determining resource costs for each contact attempt;   (f) for each account, producing a contact attempt value for each contact period, each contact attempt value comprising a numerical value representing a relative desirability of attempting to contact the respective account during the respective contact period considering the priority value for each account, the action result probability for each account, the quantity of contact resources available over the processing period, and the resource costs for each contact attempt;   (g) within each contact attempt period, making contact attempts for the plurality of accounts in order of descending contact attempt value; and   (h) for each account, collecting contact attempt history data.   
     
     
       4. The method of claim 3 further including the step of: (a) producing for each contact attempt period an expected right party contact value representing a number of expected right party contacts for the respective contact attempt period.   
     
     
       5. The method of claim 3 further including the step of: (a) producing for each contact attempt period an expected right party contact value, an expected contact attempt quantity, and an expected objective met value.   
     
     
       6. The method of claim 3 wherein the step of producing an action result probability comprises: (a) for each contact period, creating a set of probability score values for at least one user defined population using a polytomous logistic regression method based upon the account history for a representative sample for the plurality of accounts; and   (b) for each set of probability score values, applying the respective set of probability score values to each account matching the user defined population for the respective probability score values.   
     
     
       7. The method of claim 6 wherein the step of creating a set of probability score values for at least one user defined population is performed at user determined intervals. 
     
     
       8. The method of claim 3 wherein the step of producing an action result probability comprises producing for each account and each contact attempt period a right party contact probability, a wrong party contact probability, and a no connect probability. 
     
     
       9. The method of claim 8 wherein the resource costs for each contact attempt include a cost of right party contact, a cost of wrong party contact, and a cost of no connect. 
     
     
       10. The method of claim 9 wherein the step of producing a contact attempt value for each account and each contact attempt period comprises: (a) solving the linear program ##EQU5## with constraints ##EQU6## to produce a solved value x it  for each account and each contact period;   __________________________________________________________________________
where                                                                     
    i  = account 1 . . . N                                                
    t  = contact period 1 . . . T                                         
    x.sub.it                                                              
       = proportion of account i called at time t                         
    p.sub.it                                                              
       = right-party contact probability at time t for account i          
    q.sub.it                                                              
       = wrong-party contact probability at time t for account i          
    r.sub.it                                                              
       = no connect probability at time t for account i (r.sub.it = 1 -   
         q.sub.it - p.sub.it)                                             
    tc = average time of contact attempt that resulted in right-party     
         contact                                                          
    tm = average time of contact attempt that resulted in wrong-party     
         contact                                                          
    tn = average time of contact attempt that resulted in no connect      
    h.sub.t                                                               
       = total collector time available at time t                         
    c.sub.it                                                              
       = priority value for account i at time t.sub./                     
__________________________________________________________________________
       (b) associating the solved value x it  with its respective account and contact attempt period.   
     
     
       11. The method of claim 3 further comprising the step of sorting the plurality of accounts into descending order of contact attempt value with the automated dialer system. 
     
     
       12. A computer system for optimizing the scheduling of telephone contact attempts over a processing period which is divided into a plurality of contact attempt periods, the computer system comprising: (a) account storage means for storing: an account data file comprising account information for a plurality of accounts to be processed over the processing period,   a priority value for each account,   a quantity of contact resources available over the processing period,   resource cost values associated with each contact attempt,   a plurality of sets of probability score values, and   an assignment data file comprising account information for the plurality of accounts and for each account a contact attempt value for each contact period;     (b) master file download means for enabling the account storage means to receive the account data file;   (c) historical data storage means for storing contact attempt history data for each of the plurality of accounts;   (d) parameter input means responsive to operator commands for enabling an operator to input priority data, and the quantity of contact resources available over the processing period;   (e) first processing means coupled to the account storage means and historical data storage means for producing for each account an action result probability for each contact period, each action result probability being produced using one of the sets of probability score values; and   producing the contact attempt value for each account and each contact period, the contact attempt value comprising a numerical value representing a relative desirability of attempting to contact the respective account during the respective contact attempt period considering the priority value for each account, the action result probability for each account, the quantity of contact resources available over the processing period, and the resource cost for each contact attempt;     (f) modified download output means for transferring to an automated dialer system a modified download data file comprising account information for each account and contact attempt value information for each account and each contact attempt period, the contact attempt value information enabling the plurality of accounts to be sorted in descending order of contact attempt value for each contact attempt period; and   (g) second processor means associated with the automated dialer system for scheduling contact attempts for each of the plurality of accounts, the contact attempts being scheduled within each contact attempt period in order of descending contact attempt value, and collecting contact attempt history data to be transferred to the historical data storage means through historical data upload means.   
     
     
       13. The computer system of claim 12 wherein the resource cost values include a cost of right party contact, a cost of wrong party contact, and a cost of no connect. 
     
     
       14. The computer system of claim 13 wherein: (a) The action result probability comprises a right party contact probability, a wrong party contact probability, and a no connect probability.   
     
     
       15. The computer system of claim 14 wherein the first processor means produces each contact attempt value by: (a) solving the linear program ##EQU7## with constraints ##EQU8## to produce a solved value x it  for each account and each contact period;   __________________________________________________________________________
where                                                                     
    i  = account 1 . . . N                                                
    t  = contact period 1 . . . T                                         
    x.sub.it                                                              
       = proportion of account i called at time t                         
    p.sub.it                                                              
       = right-party contact probability at time t for account i          
    q.sub.it                                                              
       = wrong-party contact probability at time t for account i          
    r.sub.it                                                              
       = no connect probability at time t for account i (r.sub.it = 1 -   
         q.sub.it - p.sub.it)                                             
    tc = average time of contact attempt that resulted in right-party     
         contact                                                          
    tm = average time of contact attempt that resulted in wrong-party     
         contact                                                          
    tn = average time of contact attempt that resulted in no connect      
    h.sub.t                                                               
       = total collector time available at time t                         
    c.sub.it                                                              
       = priority value for account i at time.sub./                       
__________________________________________________________________________
       (b) associating the solved value x it  with its respective account and contact attempt period.   
     
     
       16. The computer system of claim 12 wherein: (a) the first processor means is also for producing forecast data including an expected right party contact value, an expected contact attempt quantity, and an expected objective met value; and   (b) the account storage means is also for storing the expected right party contact value, the expected contact attempt quantity, and the expected objective met value.   
     
     
       17. The computer system of claim 12 wherein the first processor means is also for producing the resource cost value using the contact attempt history data. 
     
     
       18. The computer system of claim 12 wherein: (a) the parameter input means is also for enabling the operator to input contact attempt history summarization parameters;   (b) the first processor means is also for producing summarized contact attempt history data from the contact attempt history data; and   (c) the historical data storage means is also for storing the contact attempt history summarization parameters and summarized contact attempt history data.   
     
     
       19. The computer system of claim 12 wherein the first processor means is also for: (a) producing for each contact attempt period one of the sets of probability score values for each of a plurality of user-defined populations, the sets of probability score values being produced using a polytomous logistic regression method based upon the contact attempt history data and account history data; and   (b) producing the action result probability for each account and contact attempt period using the probability score values for the user-defined populations containing the respective account.   
     
     
       20. The computer system of claim 19 wherein the first processor means is also for rebuilding each set of probability score values at predetermined time intervals.