Method and system for determining the probable location of a contact

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method and a system for determining a weapon firing strategy for an evading target. The method of the present invention comprises the steps of sensing the motion of the target, analyzing the motion of the target, providing a weapon employment decision aid, determining the evasion region for the target using the weapon employment decision aid and the analyzed motion, visually displaying the evasion region, feeding operator knowledge about the evading target, and generating a representation of the probability of the location of the evading target. The weapon employment decision aid utilizes beta density functions to determine the evasion region. The weapon employment decision aid displays target course and speed in the form of bar graphs and allows the operator to input information about target evasion course and speed and uncertainty levels.

What is claimed is:  
     
       1. A method for determining a weapon firing strategy for an evading target comprising the steps of: 
       sensing motion of said target;  
       analyzing said motion of said target;  
       providing a weapon employment decision aid;  
       determining an evasion region for said target using said weapon employment decision aid and said analyzed motion;  
       visually displaying said evasion region;  
       feeding operator knowledge about said target; and  
       generating a representation of the probability of the location of said target.  
     
     
       2. The method of claim  1  wherein said evasion region determining step comprises statistically modeling characteristics of both target course and speed during an evasive maneuver using beta density functions. 
     
     
       3. The method of claim  2  wherein said statistical modeling step comprises using a uniform density function. 
     
     
       4. The method of claim  2  wherein said statistical modeling step comprises using a ramp density function. 
     
     
       5. The method of claim  2  wherein said statistical modeling step comprises using a skewed density function. 
     
     
       6. The method of claim  1  wherein said target motion analyzing step comprises analyzing target location and direction prior to alertment. 
     
     
       7. The method of claim  1  wherein said operator knowledge input step comprises feeding operator knowledge about evasion course and speed. 
     
     
       8. The method of claim  7  wherein the operator further inputs quantitized uncertainty information about said evasion course and speed. 
     
     
       9. The method of claim  1  wherein said representation generating step comprises generating a sectionalized probability map where the probability of a target being in a certain location is displayed as a color intensity. 
     
     
       10. The method of claim  1  further comprising: 
       determining a shooting solution from said representation of the probability of the location of said target; and  
       inputting said shooting solution into a weapon setting and control system.  
     
     
       11. A system for determining a weapon firing strategy for an evading target comprising: 
       means for sensing motion of said target;  
       means for analyzing said motion of said target;  
       means for determining an evasion region for said target using said analyzed motion;  
       means for visually displaying said evasion region;  
       means for inputting operator knowledge about said target; and  
       means for generating a representation of the probability of the location of said target.  
     
     
       12. The system according to claim  11  wherein said evasion region determining means comprises means for statistically modeling characteristics of both target course and speed during an evasive maneuver using beta density functions. 
     
     
       13. The system according to claim  11  wherein said evasion region displaying means comprises means for displaying bar graphs of target speed and course. 
     
     
       14. The system according to claim  11  wherein said operator knowledge inputting means comprises means for feeding operator knowledge about evasion course and speed. 
     
     
       15. The system according to claim  14  wherein said operator knowledge input means further comprises means for inputting quantitized uncertainty information. 
     
     
       16. The system according to claim  11  wherein said means for generating said representation of the probability of the location of said target comprises means for generating a sectionalized probability map where the probability of said target being in a certain location is displayed as a color intensity. 
     
     
       17. The system of claim  11  further comprising means for inputting said weapon firing strategy into a weapon setting and control system.