Method and apparatus for providing a real time estimate of a life time for critical components in a communication system

Abstract

A system and method of predicting a life time of a device and determining a life time left for the device, includes a temperature sensor, disposed proximate to the device, sensing temperatures of the device at a plurality of time intervals; a memory, coupled to the sensor, recording the sensed temperatures from the sensor; and a controller, coupled to the memory, determining life time points of the device corresponding to the temperatures, calculating accumulated life time points of the device on account for the time intervals to predict the life time of the device. In operation, given a measured temperature, a life time left for the device is determined. Accordingly, the device can be replaced by a new device before it fails, thereby improving reliability of a system, such as a communication system at BTS (Base Transceiver Station).

What is claimed is:  
     
       1. A system of estimating a life time of a device, comprising: 
       a temperature sensor, disposed proximate to the device, sensing temperatures of the device at a plurality of time intervals;  
       a memory, coupled to the temperature sensor, recording the sensed temperatures; and  
       a controller, coupled to the memory, to quantify a relationship between the sensed temperatures and an approximated expended life of the device over the corresponding time intervals as life time points, and to calculate accumulated life time points of the device based on an aggregation of the life time points to predict the life time of the device.  
     
     
       2. The system of  claim 1 , wherein for a temperature at an operation time of the device, the controller determines a life time left for the device. 
     
     
       3. The system of  claim 2 , wherein the life time points corresponding to each of the sensed temperatures are predetermined, the controller eliminating life time left for the device based upon the life time of the device and the life time points accumulated. 
     
     
       4. The system of  claim 1 , wherein the device is high power semiconductor. 
     
     
       5. The system of  claim 4 , wherein the high power semiconductor includes a heat sink, the temperature sensor being mounted on the heat sink of the high power semiconductor. 
     
     
       6. The system of  claim 1 , wherein the device includes a heat sink, the temperature sensor is mounted on the heat sink. 
     
     
       7. The system of  claim 1 , wherein the memory comprises a database, the database including life time data. 
     
     
       8. The system of  claim 7  wherein the life time data is obtained from field tests. 
     
     
       9. The system of  claim 7 , wherein the memory comprises a model for modeling a life time of a device. 
     
     
       10. The system of  claim 9 , wherein the model and the database are based on real time data collection. 
     
     
       11. The system of  claim 1 , wherein the memory comprises a model for modeling a life time of a device. 
     
     
       12. A method of estimating a life time of a device, comprising: 
       a) sensing temperatures of a device;  
       b) recording the sensed temperatures of the device at a plurality of time intervals;  
       c) determining life time points of the device corresponding to quantified relationships between the sensed temperatures and an approximated expended life of the device over the corresponding time intervals;  
       d) calculating accumulated life time points of the device based on a sum of the life time points for the time intervals; and  
       e) predicting a life time for the device based upon the accumulated life time points.  
     
     
       13. The method of  claim 12 , wherein the life time points corresponding to the sensed temperatures are predetermined, the life time left for the device being determined from the life time of the device and the life time points accumulated. 
     
     
       14. A method of estimating a life time of a device, comprising: 
       a) sensing temperatures of a device by a temperature sensor;  
       b) recording the temperatures of the device at a plurality of time intervals;  
       c) determining life time points of the device corresponding to the temperatures;  
       d) calculating accumulated life time points of the device for the time intervals; such that a life time of the device is predicted;  
       e) predicting a life time for the device based upon the accumulated life time points; and  
       f) determining whether the accumulated life time points of the device have reached critical life time points of the device: if yes, replacing the device with a new device; if no, continuing steps a)-f).  
     
     
       15. An article of manufacture for a computer-based estimating system for estimating a life time of a device, the article of manufacture comprising a computer readable medium having instructions for causing a computer to perform a method comprising: 
       a) sensing a temperature of a device;  
       b) recording the sensed temperatures of the device at a plurality of time intervals;  
       c) determining life time points of the device corresponding to quantified relationships between the sensed temperatures and an approximated expended life of the device over the corresponding time intervals;  
       d) calculating accumulated life time points of the device based on a sum of the life time points for the time intervals; and  
       e) predicting a life time for the device based upon the accumulated life time points.