Project modeling using iterative variable defect forecasts

Abstract

Project modeling is conducted using variable defect arrival rate or variable defect rate density parameters. These defect rates may be updated on an iteration by iteration basis and may be used to provide remediation and further project modeling, remediation, and prediction.

What is claimed is: 
     
       1. A computer system for software project modeling using iterative variable defect forecasts, the system comprising:
 a first microprocessor configured to include a computer forecaster, wherein the computer forecaster is configured to receive and consider point in time analytics from one or more: defect repositories, tracking registries, or test management systems; and 
 the first microprocessor or another microprocessor configured to include a computer Defect Trajectory Modeling (“DTM”) modeler, wherein the DTM modeler is configured to revise a defect trajectory model on an iteration by iteration basis and wherein the DTM modeler is configured to predict schedule deviation for a software programming project. 
 
     
     
       2. The computer system of  claim 1  wherein the DTM modeler is configured to revise a defect trajectory model on an iteration by iteration basis as a software programming project develops additional lines of code or when there are indications that new code remains to be written for the software programming project. 
     
     
       3. The computer system of  claim 1  where the forecaster or the DTM modeler is configured to visually model a defect trajectory model including the trajectory of a software programming project release cycle and is further configured to track the release of a software programming project in real-time. 
     
     
       4. The computer system of  claim 1  wherein the forecaster or the DTM modeler is configured to predict a software programming project schedule deviation by determining one or more of the following: the number of existing defects, and what remains to be tested. 
     
     
       5. The system of  claim 1  wherein the determined forecasts are provided in real-time, at targeted times, or periodically. 
     
     
       6. The system of  claim 4  wherein the number of existing defects is determined and is determined by multiplying the number of existing lines of new code by a variable defect arrival rate (VDAR) or variable defect density rate (VDDR). 
     
     
       7. A method of software project modeling using iterative variable defect forecasting, the method comprising:
 at one or more microprocessors, generating and computer rendering an initial software project model; 
 at one or more microprocessors, generating and computer rendering a forecasted software project model, the forecasted project model generated using defect arrival rate associated with the software coding generate the forecast project model; 
 at one or more microprocessors, repeatedly comparing the initial project model with the forecasted project model and computer rendering a comparative result, the comparative result showing estimated arrival at zero defects or estimated scheduling of the software project or both. 
 
     
     
       8. The method of  claim 7  further comprising:
 at one or more microprocessors, revising the initial project model using one or more of real-time parameters or recorded parameters. 
 
     
     
       9. The method of  claim 7  further comprising: at one or more microprocessors, revising the forecasted project model using one or more of real-time parameters or recorded parameters. 
     
     
       10. The method of  claim 7  further comprising: at one or more microprocessors, proposing a remedy when updated forecast project models stray from an initial predictive project model or an earlier forecasted project model. 
     
     
       11. The method of  claim 7  wherein parameters considered comprise one or more of identified defects and what remains to be tested, where identified defects includes, analyzing defect arrival rates with or without other parameters. 
     
     
       12. The method of  claim 7  wherein when variable defect arrival rates or variable defect density rates are predicted to reach zero or near zero, indicating that the project is near or at completion. 
     
     
       13. The method of  claim 7  further comprising: at one or more microprocessors, determining a variable defect density rate or a variable defect arrival rate or both of the software project, on a periodic basis or cyclical basis. 
     
     
       14. The method of  claim 7  further comprising: at one or more microprocessors, determining a variable defect density rate or a variable defect arrival rate or both of the software project and using the determined rate for a single modeling iteration. 
     
     
       15. An iterative computer-resident software programming project forecasting system comprising:
 a computer readable non-transient storage medium configured as a tracking repository, wherein the tracking repository stores iterative measurables of one or more ongoing software development projects to be used as inputs for tracking project defects or project completion or both; 
 a computer readable non-transient storage medium configured as a defect repository, wherein the defect repository stores iterative measurables of the one or more ongoing software development projects to be used as defects for a variable defect arrival rate (VDAR) software project analysis; 
 a microprocessor configured as a forecaster, wherein the forecaster is configured to iteratively model software programming project status of the one or more projects in real-time and for previous periods of time, the forecaster configured to use variable defect arrival rate (VDAR) for building a forecast comprising defects or completion time or both; and 
 a microprocessor configured as a development manager,
 the development manager in communication with or controlling the forecaster, the defect repository, and the tracking repository. 
 
 
     
     
       16. The system of  claim 15  wherein the development manager is also configured to manage inputs and queries for forecasting and modeling. 
     
     
       17. The system of  claim 15  wherein the forecaster is also configured to build a visual model that reflects a forecast built using VDAR. 
     
     
       18. The system of  claim 15  wherein the forecaster is also configured to build a visual model that reflects a forecast built using VDAR and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). 
     
     
       19. The system of  claim 15  wherein the development manager is also configured to determine a variable defect density rate for a software programming project.